Colorodo #Poll Adjusted polling average #Obama 46.2 #Romney 46.3

State-by-State Projections

Detailed polling analysis and projections for the statewide presidential vote, along with recent polls where available.

Filter:          Competitive States         All States         ----                  Alaska                   Alabama                   Arkansas                   Arizona                   California                   Colorado                   Connecticut                   District of Columbia                   Delaware                   Florida                   Georgia                   Hawaii                   Iowa                   Idaho                   Illinois                   Indiana                   Kansas                   Kentucky                   Louisiana                   Massachusetts                   Maryland                   Maine Statewide                   Michigan                   Minnesota                   Missouri                   Mississippi                   Montana                   North Carolina                   North Dakota                   Nebraska Statewide                   New Hampshire                   New Jersey                   New Mexico                   Nevada                   New York                   Ohio                   Oklahoma                   Oregon                   Pennsylvania                   Rhode Island                   South Carolina                   South Dakota                   Tennessee                   Texas                   Utah                   Virginia                   Vermont                   Washington                   Wisconsin                   West Virginia                   Wyoming                   Nebraska CD-1 District 1                  Nebraska CD-2 District 2                  Nebraska CD-3 District 3                  Maine CD-1 District 1                  Maine CD-2 District 2              

Tossup

Colorado

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	46.7	45.8	Obama +0.9
Adjusted polling average	46.2	46.3	Romney +0.1
State fundamentals	46.7	45.8	Obama +0.9
Now-cast	46.4	46.3	Obama +0.1
Projected vote share ±6.4	50.1	48.7	Obama +1.4
Chance of winning	59%	41%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Purple Strategies		8/14	49.0	46.0	Obama +3.0
Gravis Marketing		8/9	45.0	46.0	Romney +1.0
CBS/NYT		8/6	45.0	50.0	Romney +5.0
Rasmussen		8/6	47.0	47.0	Tie
PPP *		8/5	46.0	42.0	Obama +4.0

Tossup

Florida

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	45.4	47.3	Romney +1.9
Adjusted polling average	45.6	47.1	Romney +1.5
State fundamentals	44.2	48.2	Romney +4.0
Now-cast	45.6	47.6	Romney +2.0
Projected vote share ±5.7	49.2	50.0	Romney +0.8
Chance of winning	45%	55%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
FMW/Baydoun Consulting		8/18	39.9	54.5	Romney +14.6
Rasmussen		8/15	43.0	45.0	Romney +2.0
Purple Strategies		8/14	47.0	48.0	Romney +1.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac		7/30	51.0	45.0	Obama +6.0
PPP		7/29	48.0	47.0	Obama +1.0

Lean Obama

Iowa

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	45.8	44.0	Obama +1.8
Adjusted polling average	44.6	45.3	Romney +0.7
State fundamentals	47.3	44.5	Obama +2.8
Now-cast	46.1	45.1	Obama +1.0
Projected vote share ±6.6	51.1	48.9	Obama +2.2
Chance of winning	64%	37%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Rasmussen		8/8	44.0	46.0	Romney +2.0
PPP		7/15	48.0	43.0	Obama +5.0
We Ask America		6/18	45.0	44.0	Obama +1.0
Rasmussen		6/11	46.0	47.0	Romney +1.0
NBC/Marist		5/24	44.0	44.0	Tie

Likely Romney

Missouri

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	43.6	47.8	Romney +4.2
Adjusted polling average	42.9	48.5	Romney +5.6
State fundamentals	42.6	49.4	Romney +6.8
Now-cast	43.0	49.0	Romney +6.0
Projected vote share ±5.7	46.9	51.8	Romney +4.9
Chance of winning	20%	80%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
SurveyUSA		8/12	44.0	45.0	Romney +1.0
Chilenski Strategies		8/8	47.0	48.0	Romney +1.0
Rasmussen		7/30	44.0	50.0	Romney +6.0
Mason-Dixon *		7/25	42.0	51.0	Romney +9.0
We Ask America *		7/24	39.7	49.0	Romney +9.3

Likely Romney

Montana

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	41.7	48.6	Romney +6.9
Adjusted polling average	40.4	50.0	Romney +9.6
State fundamentals	41.5	50.8	Romney +9.3
Now-cast	41.3	50.7	Romney +9.4
Projected vote share ±7.0	44.8	52.9	Romney +8.1
Chance of winning	13%	87%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Rasmussen		6/18	42.0	51.0	Romney +9.0
Rasmussen		5/2	44.0	51.0	Romney +7.0
PPP *		4/29	41.0	43.0	Romney +2.0
Rasmussen		4/2	40.0	49.0	Romney +9.0
Rasmussen		2/22	41.0	48.0	Romney +7.0

Lean Romney

North Carolina

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	46.7	46.9	Romney +0.2
Adjusted polling average	45.4	48.2	Romney +2.8
State fundamentals	43.1	48.8	Romney +5.7
Now-cast	44.9	48.6	Romney +3.7
Projected vote share ±5.2	48.3	51.0	Romney +2.7
Chance of winning	31%	69%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
PPP		8/5	49.0	46.0	Obama +3.0
Rasmussen		8/1	44.0	49.0	Romney +5.0
National Research		7/18	48.0	49.0	Romney +1.0
Myers		7/8	48.0	49.0	Romney +1.0
PPP		7/8	47.0	46.0	Obama +1.0

Lean Obama

New Hampshire

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	49.3	44.7	Obama +4.6
Adjusted polling average	48.2	45.8	Obama +2.4
State fundamentals	48.4	43.8	Obama +4.6
Now-cast	48.3	45.2	Obama +3.1
Projected vote share ±7.1	52.3	47.7	Obama +4.6
Chance of winning	74%	26%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
PPP		8/12	51.0	45.0	Obama +6.0
UNH		8/12	49.0	46.0	Obama +3.0
PPP		8/8	50.0	44.0	Obama +6.0
UNH		7/15	49.0	45.0	Obama +4.0
NBC/Marist		6/25	45.0	45.0	Tie

Likely Obama

Nevada

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	49.3	44.3	Obama +5.0
Adjusted polling average	48.2	45.3	Obama +2.9
State fundamentals	48.4	44.5	Obama +3.9
Now-cast	48.6	45.2	Obama +3.4
Projected vote share ±6.1	51.7	47.1	Obama +4.6
Chance of winning	78%	22%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Rasmussen		7/24	50.0	45.0	Obama +5.0
We Ask America *		7/18	49.0	43.0	Obama +6.0
Magellan		7/17	50.0	46.0	Obama +4.0
PPP		6/10	48.0	42.0	Obama +6.0
NBC/Marist		5/24	48.0	46.0	Obama +2.0

Lean Obama

Ohio

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	46.9	43.7	Obama +3.2
Adjusted polling average	46.1	44.5	Obama +1.6
State fundamentals	45.3	46.4	Romney +1.1
Now-cast	46.1	45.1	Obama +1.0
Projected vote share ±5.9	50.3	48.1	Obama +2.2
Chance of winning	65%	35%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Purple Strategies		8/14	44.0	46.0	Romney +2.0
Rasmussen		8/13	45.0	45.0	Tie
PPP		8/12	48.0	45.0	Obama +3.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac		7/30	50.0	44.0	Obama +6.0
We Ask America *		7/24	47.8	40.2	Obama +7.6

Likely Obama

Pennsylvania

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	48.0	41.7	Obama +6.3
Adjusted polling average	46.9	42.8	Obama +4.1
State fundamentals	48.1	44.0	Obama +4.1
Now-cast	47.9	43.8	Obama +4.1
Projected vote share ±5.3	52.0	46.7	Obama +5.3
Chance of winning	84%	16%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Franklin & Marshall		8/12	47.0	42.0	Obama +5.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac		7/30	53.0	42.0	Obama +11.0
PPP		7/23	49.0	43.0	Obama +6.0
Susquehanna		7/23	46.0	43.0	Obama +3.0
Rasmussen		7/18	48.0	44.0	Obama +4.0

Lean Obama

Virginia

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	47.5	45.0	Obama +2.5
Adjusted polling average	46.8	45.8	Obama +1.0
State fundamentals	46.1	46.3	Romney +0.2
Now-cast	46.9	46.1	Obama +0.8
Projected vote share ±5.2	50.9	49.1	Obama +1.8
Chance of winning	64%	36%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
PPP		8/19	50.0	45.0	Obama +5.0
Purple Strategies		8/14	45.0	48.0	Romney +3.0
Rasmussen		8/7	48.0	46.0	Obama +2.0
CBS/NYT		8/6	49.0	45.0	Obama +4.0
Rasmussen		7/17	47.0	46.0	Obama +1.0

Lean Obama

Wisconsin

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
Polling average	48.7	45.3	Obama +3.4
Adjusted polling average	47.5	46.5	Obama +1.0
State fundamentals	49.3	42.8	Obama +6.5
Now-cast	47.7	45.7	Obama +2.0
Projected vote share ±5.9	51.1	47.9	Obama +3.2
Chance of winning	71%	29%

POLLS	538 WT.	DATE	DEM	REP	MARGIN
PPP		8/19	47.0	48.0	Romney +1.0
Rasmussen		8/15	47.0	48.0	Romney +1.0
CNN/Opinion Research		8/14	49.0	45.0	Obama +4.0
CBS/NYT		8/6	51.0	45.0	Obama +6.0
Marquette U.		8/5	50.0	45.0	Obama +5.0

Likely Obama

Maine CD-2 District 2

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS	DEM	REP	MARGIN
State fundamentals	49.7	42.0	Obama +7.7
Now-cast	49.5	41.7	Obama +7.8
Projected vote share ±8.0	53.8	44.5	Obama +9.3
Chance of winning	88%	12%

* Poll indicates a three-person matchup between President Obama, Mitt Romney and Gary Johnson