Democrats over-sampled: USC/LA Times poll shows Barack Obamaleading Mitt Romney http://tinyurl.com/9oca2wg #tcot #sgp #teaparty#urkellies
Democrats over-sampled: USC/LA Times poll shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney
U.S. President Barack Obama speaks at Capital University on August 21, 2012 in Columbus, Ohio. President Obama began a two-day tour of Ohio and Nevada to discuss the choice in this election between two different visions of how to expand the economy.
Credits:
Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images
The USC Annenberg/Los Angeles Times poll on the presidential race released today shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent. The survey of 1009 registered voters had a margin of error of 3.2 percent and included 39 percent Democrats and 33 percent Republicans among its respondents. When un-skewed, the same data shows Romney leading 49 percent to 45 percent over the president with approximately six percent undecided. That result would exceed the survey's 3.2 percent margin of error.
The USC/LA Times survey of 1009 registered voters included 39 percent Democrats, 33 Republicans and 28 percent independent or un-enrolled voters. Rasmussen Reportsrecent reporting of partisan trends among voters, based on tens of thousands of voters surveyed, showed the voting electorate made up of 35.4 percent Republicans, 34.0 percent Democrats and 30.5 percent “Unaffiliated” or independent voters. The difference means the USA/LA Times poll over-sampled Democratic voters by seven percent.
The USC/LA Times survey reports that Barack Obama leads 91 percent to 8 percent among Democrats while Mitt Romney leads 91 percent to 4 percent among Republican voters and 45 percent to 42 percent among Independent voters. Those numbers lead to the overall one point lead of 45 percent for 44 percent for Romney.
President Obama's performance as president is approved by 47 percent in the survey while being disapproved by 47 percent. The ratio of approval to disapproval among Democrats was 84 percent to 9 percent. Republicans disapproved of Obama's performance by a 89 percent to seven percent margin while independents disapproved of the president's performance 53 percent to 43 percent. When these data are un-skewed using the same methodology described below, the overall approval to disapproval of the president's performance would likely be 44 percent approval to 51 percent disapproval.
When the data from the USC/LA Times poll is un-skewed by weighting their reported percentages between Romney and Obama to the partisan affiliations showed by Rasmussen's extensive data results on that issue, the overall picture of the race is different. With Republicans weighted 35.4 percent, Democrats at 34.0 percent and Independents at 30.5 percent, the results calculate to Romney leading Obama by a 49 percent to 45 percent with six percent undecided. That is significant and shows the skew puts the race basically within the poll's three percent margin of error, while a five point lead exceeds that.
This USA/LA Times survey is the latest of several to over-sample Democratic voters and show a result skewed to President Obama. The latest Fox News poll released today shows very much the same pattern of being skewed. Just recently, two Democratic pollsters, Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell appearing on the Fox News Channel, showed how many of the mainstream media commissioned polls during this election season are over-sampling Democrats and reporting questionable results.
