A New Mason-Dixon General Election Poll on Idaho gives Romney 63%, Obama 27%. http://bit.ly/Wj1svo #Election2012
9:47 AM - 14 Oct 12 · Details
An Idaho Statesman poll shows that even Republican support is soft for Props 1, 2 and 3.
By DAN POPKEY — dpopkey@idahostatesman.com
The fears of supporters of Superintendent Tom Luna’s 2011 school reforms were realized in a new poll conducted for the Idaho Statesman.
Propositions 1 and 2 are close, with Prop 1 trailing by 4 percentage points and Prop 2 ahead by 3 points. Proposition 3 is behind by 7 points.
A relatively high number of undecideds is a bad sign for Luna, said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who said those voters typically break by a 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 margin for the “no” vote.
“The fact that all the results are close is misleading,” Coker said. “The truth is that all three face a stiff uphill battle. All things being equal, they are likely to lose by margins much larger than what these numbers show.”
Coker pointed to lukewarm support among Luna’s fellow Republicans for the three laws that erase union bargaining rights, provide bonuses to about 80 percent of teachers and mandate online courses and laptops for every high school student.
“Proponents are going to have to outspend the opponents by a large margin to convince Republican voters to get behind these propositions.”
Through Sept. 30, opponents outraised proponents, $1.38 million to $501,000.
That news prompted Melaleuca CEO Frank VanderSloot, who has already spent over $200,000, to say he’ll boost his support for the measures.
“I think we’re way behind,” VanderSloot told the Statesman Thursday. “I think if you were to take a survey today, you’d find that everybody’s confused.”
Taken together, the pollsters asked if the propositions would improve the quality of education in Idaho’s K-12 public schools. Forty-four percent said no, 39 percent said yes, and 17 percent said they were not sure.
The statewide poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday with interviews of 625 registered and likely voters. It has a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Fifty percent of those polled called themselves Republicans, 28 percent said they were independent or belonged to third parties, and 22 percent identified as Democrats.
While Democrats oppose all three propositions by large margins, Republicans are divided. That’s despite vigorous support from Luna and his fellow Republican Gov. Butch Otter to sustain the laws that were put on the ballot by 74,000 voter signatures.
Among Republicans, Prop 1 (unions) is ahead 46 percent to 36 percent; Prop 2 (bonuses) leads 51-32; and Prop 3 (laptops) leads 48-37. Democrats oppose the measures 56-25, 56-21 and 76-18 percent, respectively. Independents oppose Prop 1 42-35, favor Prop 2 43-39 and oppose Prop 3 44-42.
Read more here: http://www.idahostatesman.com/2012/10/14/2309351/ed-laws-face-stiff-uphill-battle1.html#storylink=cpy
