Mitt Romney leads in less skewed Monmouth University poll
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign rally on October 11, 2012 in Asheville, North Carolina.
Credits:
Photo by Rainier Ehrhardt/Getty Images
New Jersey-based Monmouth University released a new poll of the presidential race today showing Mitt Romney leading 47 percent to 46 percent over President Obama. The poll, which Real Clear Politics lists as the Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braunpoll, survey 1360 registered voters, between October 8-10. The survey has a margin of error of 2.7 percent.
The Monmouth University poll, among the 1360 registered voters, includes 418 registered Republicans, 471 registered Democrats and 458 registered independents. The poll claims to weight likely voters at 32 percent Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and 33 percent independents. That means the sample favors Democrats by three percent among likely voters.
According to data from the latest QStarNews poll, the expected partisan make up of the electorate expected for this year's election is 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats and 30.0 independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by three percent in this poll's sample.
The Monmouth University poll has Democrats favoring Obama by a 89 percent to eight percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 93 percent to five percent margin. The survey found independent voters supporting Romney by a 44 percent to 41 percent margin over the president.
If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of Democrats, Republicans and independents as shown by the QstarNews poll data, the survey indicates a slightly higher lead forMitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 48 percent to 45 percent margin over President Obama.
This survey is not the only such poll recently to be skewed by over-sampling Democrats. Last month, the September 10 CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. Last month on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoenboth confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.
So many of these skewed polls have been unskewed here in this column they are now averaged, in unskewed form, in the new UnskewedPolls.com UnSkewed Average of Polls that today shows Romney leading by 3.9 percent.
The polls got UnSkewed, now the media gets it too -- UnSkewedMedia.com.
Let your voice be heard, take the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll, just a few quick questions, and the full QStarNews Poll with many interesting questions.
Featured in The Blaze, the Drudge Report and mentioned on the Rush Limbaugh Show and others, everyone is visiting UnSkewedPolls.com to check out the UnSkewedPolls.com average of unskewed polls.
