Romney 50.8% Obama 49.3%
My most complex prediction of
Ohio so far, and I have included links to the raw data if you want to try to
reproduce this. First thing I did is backwards engineer the voting McCain had
to get in 2008 to only lose by 4% then I made the assumption Romney would do
exactly the same on election day. All I have done is substituted the absentee
and early voting totals and percentages and applied them to the 2012 election.
You might say “but Romney will do better than McCain did in 2008” yes I agree,
but I did not make that assumption and still came up with Romney 50.8% Obama
49.3%
1,628,013 absentee and
early votes were cast on 2008 65% 35%
1,256,000 absentee and
early votes cast in 2012 so far 56% 44%
5,773,777
total votes counted in 2008 52% 44%
The Ohio Secretary of State report dated Oct. 30 states: As of Friday,
October 26th, more than 1.2 million Ohioans had already cast their ballots. Of
the 1.3 million absentee ballots that have been mailed to voters during the
absentee voting period, more than 950,000 have already been returned or 71.9
percent. In addition, more than 306,000 voters had voted in person at their
board of elections or designated vote center.
First thing I did is figure out
what the vote had to be on election day for McCain to lose the election by 4
percentage points. This will probably be better for Romney this year, but for
the sake of argument I am going to make the assumption that election day itself
will play out exactly like it did on 2008.
Actual 2008
Voting – Ohio
Absentee
|
65%
|
35%
|
Absentee
|
65%
|
35%
|
Early Voting
|
65%
|
35%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Obama.McCain
|
52.4%
|
47.6%
|
Now all I am going to change
here is one thing, and that is the absentee and early voting values. In 2008 it
accounted for 29% of the vote, and currently it is at 21% so I will give two
different calculations first at 25% which I think it will be, and the other at
29%. All the assumes that Romney does EXACTLY the same as McCain did on
election day
Proposed 2012
Voting – Ohio -25%
Absentee
|
56%
|
44%
|
Absentee
|
56%
|
44%
|
Absentee
|
56%
|
44%
|
Absentee
|
56%
|
44%
|
Early Voting
|
56%
|
44%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Obama/Romney
|
49.3%
|
50.8%
|
Proposed 2012
Voting – Ohio -29%
Absentee
|
56%
|
44%
|
Absentee
|
56%
|
44%
|
EarlyVoting
|
56%
|
44%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Voting Day
|
47.0%
|
53.0%
|
Obama/Romney
|
49.7%
|
50.3%
|
Here is the data I used…
