#Obama #Romney Assuming 2008 predicted turnout of Dem+8 Obama will win, with 2010 turnout of Dem+3 Romney will win. #SPREADSHEET by state Dem+0 here -->

Released October 16, 2012 

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race 

2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 52.22 percent of the popular vote and 342 electoral votes to President Obama's 47.31 percent and 196 electoral votes. 

The chart below assumes Dem+0 turnout in the 2012 election. THIS WILL NOT happen, becuase 2008 election saw Democrats turnout Dem+5,  then 2010 showed Dem+3, and current polling is reporting Dem+8 for this election.  The below chart is a great starting point to do some HOMEWORK and cut/paste this chart into excel, state by state, adjust it to the oversampling you think is correct. A simple starting point is to multiple all Dem columns by 1.04 and all Rep columns by 0.96 to get current RCP projections


 

Data from last four elections and projection of popular vote by state for 2012 

State	Clinton 1996	Dole 1996	Gore 2000	Bush 2000	Kerry 2004	Bush 2004	Obama 2008	McCain 2008	State	Projected Obama	Projected Romney	Projected pop Obama	Projected pop Romney
Alabama	43.00	50.00	42.00	56.00	37.00	63.00	39.00	60.00	Alabama	36.60	63.92	790453	1380486
Alaska	33.00	51.00	28.00	59.00	35.50	61.10	37.70	60.20	Alaska	29.90	64.50	85357	184131
Arizona	46.00	44.00	45.00	51.00	44.40	54.90	45.00	53.80	Arizona	41.45	57.60	897167	1246727
Arkansas	54.00	37.00	46.00	51.00	44.50	54.40	38.80	58.80	Arkansas	42.18	56.97	460922	622540
California	51.00	38.00	53.00	42.00	54.30	44.40	60.90	37.30	California	55.15	44.10	6699110	5356859
Colorado	44.00	46.00	42.00	51.00	47.00	51.70	53.50	44.90	Colorado	47.98	50.07	1116209	1164831
Connecticut	52.00	35.00	56.00	38.00	54.30	43.90	60.50	38.30	Connecticut	52.05	45.47	865855	756397
Delaware	52.00	37.00	55.00	42.00	53.30	45.80	61.90	37.00	Delaware	55.90	43.12	237050	182855
District of Columbia	85.00	9.00	85.00	9.00	89.20	9.30	92.90	6.50	District of Columbia	84.38	15.12	197646	35416
Florida	48.00	42.00	49.00	49.00	47.10	52.10	50.90	48.40	Florida	48.10	51.55	4043609	4333639
Georgia	46.00	47.00	43.00	55.00	41.40	58.00	47.00	52.20	Georgia	40.70	59.72	1647277	2417086
Hawaii	57.00	32.00	56.00	37.00	54.00	45.30	71.80	26.60	Hawaii	56.05	41.90	259532	194012
Idaho	34.00	52.00	28.00	67.00	30.30	68.40	36.10	61.50	Idaho	28.45	68.90	188241	455881
Illinois	54.00	37.00	55.00	43.00	54.80	44.50	61.80	36.90	Illinois	56.75	43.02	3128293	2371439
Indiana	42.00	47.00	41.00	57.00	39.30	59.90	49.90	49.00	Indiana	39.40	59.90	1109780	1687203
Iowa	50.00	40.00	49.00	48.00	49.30	49.90	54.00	44.70	Iowa	46.93	52.32	730033	813878
Kansas	36.00	54.00	37.00	58.00	36.60	62.00	41.40	56.80	Kansas	34.10	64.37	420433	793644
Kentucky	46.00	45.00	41.00	57.00	39.70	59.50	41.10	57.50	Kentucky	38.30	61.42	712903	1143250
Louisiana	52.00	40.00	45.00	53.00	42.20	56.70	39.90	58.60	Louisiana	41.13	58.75	824956	1178365
Maine	52.00	31.00	49.00	44.00	53.60	44.60	57.60	40.50	Maine	49.40	46.70	368715	348562
Maryland	54.00	38.00	56.00	40.00	56.00	43.00	61.90	36.80	Maryland	53.33	46.12	1396875	1208023
Massachusetts	61.00	28.00	60.00	33.00	62.00	36.90	62.00	36.20	Massachusetts	57.60	40.20	1794345	1252303
Michigan	52.00	38.00	51.00	46.00	51.20	47.80	57.40	40.90	Michigan	49.25	49.85	2515970	2546621
Minnesota	51.00	35.00	48.00	46.00	51.50	48.00	54.20	44.00	Minnesota	51.53	45.92	1526665	1360459
Mississippi	44.00	49.00	41.00	58.00	40.10	59.10	42.80	56.40	Mississippi	38.33	62.30	481599	782772
Missouri	47.00	41.00	47.00	50.00	46.10	53.30	49.30	49.40	Missouri	43.70	55.10	1310591	1652485
Montana	41.00	44.00	33.00	58.00	38.60	59.10	47.20	49.70	Montana	36.30	59.37	178016	291152
Nebraska	35.00	54.00	33.00	62.00	32.70	66.00	41.50	57.00	Nebraska	31.90	66.42	255585	532161
Nevada	44.00	43.00	46.00	50.00	48.10	50.70	55.10	42.70	Nevada	47.65	50.27	467745	493464
New Hampshire	49.00	39.00	47.00	48.00	50.40	49.00	54.30	44.80	New Hampshire	46.53	51.87	339478	378438
New Jersey	54.00	36.00	56.00	40.00	53.00	46.20	56.80	42.10	New Jersey	51.30	47.75	1936969	1802929
New Mexico	49.00	42.00	48.00	48.00	49.00	49.80	56.70	42.00	New Mexico	47.03	52.12	395338	438125
New York	59.00	31.00	60.00	35.00	58.40	40.10	62.20	36.70	New York	56.25	42.37	4059751	3057985
North Carolina	44.00	49.00	43.00	56.00	43.60	56.10	49.90	49.50	North Carolina	44.48	56.32	1958193	2479438
North Dakota	40.00	47.00	33.00	61.00	35.50	62.90	44.70	53.30	North Dakota	34.65	62.72	111580	201972
Ohio	47.00	40.00	46.00	50.00	48.70	50.80	51.20	47.20	Ohio	47.58	50.67	2578342	2745788
Oklahoma	40.00	48.00	38.00	60.00	34.40	65.60	34.40	65.60	Oklahoma	33.05	66.47	502532	1010690
Oregon	47.00	39.00	47.00	47.00	51.60	47.40	57.10	40.80	Oregon	50.03	47.22	873228	824182
Pennsylvania	49.00	40.00	51.00	46.00	51.00	48.50	54.70	44.30	Pennsylvania	48.78	50.37	2931661	3027219
Rhode Island	60.00	27.00	61.00	32.00	59.40	38.70	63.10	35.30	Rhode Island	57.23	39.92	261007	182062
South Carolina	44.00	50.00	41.00	57.00	41.00	58.10	44.90	53.80	South Carolina	39.08	61.40	759571	1193390
South Dakota	43.00	46.00	38.00	60.00	38.40	59.90	44.70	53.20	South Dakota	37.38	61.45	145356	238955
Tennessee	48.00	46.00	47.00	51.00	42.60	56.90	41.80	56.90	Tennessee	41.20	59.37	1093153	1575254
Texas	44.00	49.00	38.00	59.00	38.20	61.10	43.80	55.50	Texas	37.35	62.82	3103213	5219380
Utah	33.00	54.00	26.00	67.00	26.40	72.70	34.20	62.90	Utah	26.25	70.82	234034	631402
Vermont	53.00	31.00	51.00	41.00	58.90	38.80	67.80	30.60	Vermont	54.03	42.02	178630	138923
Virginia	45.00	47.00	44.00	52.00	45.60	53.80	52.70	46.40	Virginia	45.18	54.47	1731207	2087181
Washington	50.00	37.00	50.00	45.00	52.80	45.60	57.50	40.50	Washington	50.93	46.70	1400881	1284530
West Virginia	51.00	37.00	46.00	52.00	43.20	56.10	42.60	55.70	West Virginia	42.05	56.87	304251	411480
Wisconsin	49.00	39.00	48.00	48.00	49.70	49.40	56.30	42.40	Wisconsin	47.10	51.37	1434572	1564628
Wyoming	37.00	50.00	28.00	68.00	29.10	69.00	32.70	65.20	Wyoming	28.05	69.72	70344	174844
Total	0.49	0.41	0.48	0.48	48.30	50.70	53.00	46.00	Total	47.31	52.22	61114223	67455436