Sunday, October 14, 2012

Prediction: #Ohio Election will be decided by about 88000 votes, 2008 was Obama 2,708,685 to 2,501,855


Prediction: #Ohio Election will be decided by about 88000 votes, 2008 was Obama 2,708,685 to 2,501,855

I have found a guy who is keeping track of Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests. After a lot of math, here is the simple trend. In 2008 Obama won by approx 200k votes, almost all of that spread came from absentee voting, that current spread is trending to be 88k this time. The rest of the Ohio vote was about 50/50. If Romney can eliminate this spread with the remaining 4.5M votes, he will win Ohio. Real time link below 2012  vs. 2008  Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests (Thru Oct12.. Dem+6 vs Dem+14)https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0 Note, not following Virginia, Florida or North Carolina because they are all Trending Rep+10 to Rep+20, this along with Suffolk polling group deciding that its not worth their time to poll their anymore, tends to focus my attention to Ohio…