NBC/WSJ pollhttp://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/03/14194770-nbcwsj-poll-obama-holds-lead-in-ohio-statistical-tie-in-va-fla#.UG4GqHN4GjE.twitter [ Romney spoke with confidence, whileObama stumbled over his words ]
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama holds lead in Ohio; statistical tie in Va., Fla.
By Domenico Montanaro, NBC News
Updated at 9:01 a.m. ET: As President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney prepare to square off for their first debate Wednesday night, the Democratic incumbent maintains a significant lead in one key battleground state while the contests in two others have tightened, according to a new round of NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal polls.
In Ohio, Obama holds a 51 percent to 43 percent lead among likely voters, which is relatively unchanged from his 50 percent to 43 percent lead three weeks ago.
In Florida and Virginia, Obama and Romney are statistically tied, with the Democrat clinging to a slight edge. In Florida, Obama leads 47 percent to 46 percent, down from 49 percent to 45 percent in mid-September. And in Virginia, Obama is up 48 percent to 46 percent. Last month, Obama led 49 percent to 45 percent in the Old Dominion state.
"The polling in September was right after the conventions," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. He added, "We may be seeing a dissipation in some of that post-convention bounce that [Obama] enjoyed."
Miringoff also noted, "Things have returned in Florida and Virginia to the kind of closeness we've been seeing earlier in the campaign. Not so in Ohio."
Reuters, Getty Images
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These three states are where the campaigns have focused the lion's share of their resources. Of the $687 million in total advertising spending between the campaigns and outside groups, more than half -- $384 million -- has been spent trying to tip the 60 electoral votes in this trio of battlegrounds.
Women's support for the president and a continued negative perception of Romney are fueling Obama's lead in Ohio. There is a wide gender gap in the Buckeye State, with women saying they prefer Obama over Romney by a 56 percent to 39 percent margin.
A majority of all Ohio voters (51 percent) view Romney negatively; just 42 percent view him positively. It was the reverse for Obama, who enjoys a 52 percent/favorable, 44 percent/unfavorable score.
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"Ohio needs to change if Romney's going to make that state more competitive," Miringoff said.
