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Saturday, January 23, 2016

#Zogby poll #Trump 45% #Cruz 13% #Rubio 8% #Bush 6% #Carson 4% #Fiorina #Kasich 3%, support looks wide and deep

Donald Trump has captured the imaginations of Republican likely voters nationwide–at least for now. (AP Photo/Brandi Simons)
In a brand new Zogby Analytics poll of likely GOP caucus and primary voters, Donald Trump receives 45% of the total vote, with Ted Cruz in a distant second place at 13%, followed by Marco Rubio with 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina and John Kasich tied with 3%, and Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all tied with 2%. Ten percent are undecided.
The new poll of 294 likely Republican voters nationwide was conducted on January 19 and 20 and has a margin of sampling error of +/-5.8 percentage points.
Trump polls over 40% among men (49%) and women (41%), as well as Republicans (47%) and independents (49%), conservatives (46%) and moderates (45%). Cruz scores double digits among men (10%), women (16%), Republicans (15%), independents (10%), and conservative (15%).
Ted Cruz in a distant second place in a new Zogby Analytics poll. (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)
We tested a series of three-way races and found Trump trouncing all of his rivals: 53% to 20% for Cruz, and 11% for Mr. Rubio; 57% to 23% for Cruz, and 8% for Christie; 57% to 23% for Cruz and 7% for Kasich; 55% to 25% for Cruz, and 10% for Bush.

In a series of head-to head match-ups with individual challengers for the nomination, Trump led Cruz 59% to 29%, Rubio 64% to 27%, Bush 68% to 22%, Kasich 73% to 15% and Christie 69% to 19%.
National polls may mean less right now–and often do–before the winnowing process begins in Iowa and New Hampshire and voters actually cast ballots. But, at least for now, Donald Trump has captured the imaginations of Republican likely voters nationwide. 

And his support looks wide and deep. He has defied the conventional wisdom at every turn–including a bold prediction that he will win Iowa. Candidates normally try to dampen expectations in early state voting so as to appear to have done better than most thought.In one sense, saying he will win Iowa could be setting Trump up for a fall–especially when, at the time, Ted Cruz was leading. But it appears that Trump’s political acumen is much better than any of us had given it credit for. Since his prediction he has received the coveted and surprising endorsement of social conservative icon Sarah Palin, while watching establishment (and very popular) Iowa Governor Terry Bransted condemn Ted Cruz. Above, no other candidate for the GOP nomination has caught national attention. The new Zogby Poll underscores that.
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