By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
Published: March 14, 2011
TRIPOLI, Libya — Akram al-Warfalli, a leader of this country’s giant Warfalla tribe, said only a few words in his interview with Al Jazeera: “We tell the brother Qaddafi, well, he is no longer a brother,” Mr. Warfalli said. “We tell him to leave the country.”
Moises Saman for The New York Times
Tribal leaders saluted each other on Monday before praying under a portrait of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, whose support among the tribes is fast eroding.
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It appeared to be the defection of a powerful tribe that has supported Col.Muammar el-Qaddafi — a powerful inspiration for the revolts that were then taking shape in the east. Some Libyans and scholars outside the country say the system of tribal alliances that has long been Colonel Qaddafi’s most potent weapon is now emerging as perhaps a potential vulnerability, as external wars, failed tribal coups and internal purges have chipped away at his support, even among his own tribe and its allies.
Colonel Qaddafi’s reaction to the tribe’s mutiny was swift, dispatching fighting units to the Warfalla’s traditional homeland of Bani Walid, another Warfalla leader recalled Monday. There they made sure no younger tribe members left to join uprisings in the nearby cities of Zawiyah and Misurata, as well as here in the capital, this Warfalla leader said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution against himself and his family.
“The Warfalla, like their brethren the Zintan and Awlad Suleiman, are boiling,” he said in a written message, referring to two neighboring tribes. “The only reason we have not seen them participate in combat is the lack of weapons, and the siege that is now implemented upon them. They are simply outgunned, and are vulnerable.” He predicted “a massive tribal attack,” if the tribes could only obtain weapons.
A Qaddafi government spokesman, Abdel-Majid al-Dursi, disputed the Warfalla leader’s account, saying the tribe’s support for Colonel Qaddafi remained strong. From the moment he seized power in 1969, Colonel Qaddafi has surrounded himself with a bulwark of close allies drawn from his family, his own tribe, the Qaddafa, and two larger central and Western Libyan tribes with close ties to his own, the Warfalla and the Margharha. All three tribes — the Qaddafa most of all — have dominated the ranks of Qaddafi militias and armed forces, jobs that carry significant power, prestige and money in Libyan society and culture. They remain his sturdiest base of support.
But as Colonel Qaddafi has maneuvered through four decades of treacherous tribal politics, he has made many enemies, even among his own tribe and its allies. The tensions flared into the open as early as 1985, when his guards shot and killed his cousin Hassan Ishkal, a top military commander, at the gates of Colonel Qaddafi’s compound here; Mr. Ishkal had questioned the wisdom of the Libyan leader’s losing war with neighboring Chad.
Intertribal stresses reached their most visible peak in 1993, when military officers from the three favored tribes, the Qaddafa, Warfalla and Margharha, staged an abortive coup. Now, since the recent revolt began, another Qaddafa cousin in the colonel’s inner circle, Ahmad Gaddaf al Dam, has reportedly fled to Cairo.
As the tide of battle has turned recently, thanks to Colonel Qaddafi’s well-equipped militia, some rebels say they are pinning their hopes on a tribal coup organized by those still close to him. “We pray for that every day,” said Mohammed, a rebel in the besieged city of Misurata whose family name was withheld for their protection. “There is a prayer especially for that. We hope that they turn on him, and they will be heroes if they do.”
He added, “Qaddafi has played the tribe game too much.”
Even in contemporary Libya, where much of the population now lives in or near cities, many identify as strongly with their tribe as they do with their country, social scientists and many Libyans say. A Libyan who learns that a new acquaintance hails from a well-regarded tribe will often shake hands a second time in an extra measure of respect.
