@TheEconomistThe Economist
The war in #Libya may be over but foreign powers are running democratic proxies and interfering in national affairs econ.st/smNlVF
All too friendly
The war may be over but foreign powers are still busy in Libya
Nov 12th 2011 | TRIPOLI | from the print edition
THE Libyan rebels who triumphed in their six-month uprising against Colonel Muammar Qaddafi could not have prevailed without arms, air-cover, funding and diplomatic support from NATO and Arab allies. Even so, victory belonged to them. No foreign ground troops were deployed. Brave Libyans protected Benghazi, defended Misrata and captured Tripoli. The country’s new rulers emerged from the war with hard-earned legitimacy, giving them a decent chance of setting up a unified national government.
Last month they thanked their foreign allies and bid them goodbye. Most allies in turn stressed that the Libyans were in charge. Time to go home, they said: this was not Iraq in 2003. However, since the fighting ceased some allies have become more involved in Libyan affairs, not less, according to Western diplomats.
Libya is a small, rich and homogenous country. None of its political factions and fledgling parties are dominant. To gain influence (and wealth) they know they must co-operate. A successful post-war political system will be based on competition. But it can only work if no one group gains dominance. Some could potentially make a bid for hegemony, but only if they have access to outside resources. Parts of the new establishment are worried when they see foreign powers giving selective backing to their opponents—often those prepared to do their bidding. This not only undermines the new republic’s aura of legitimacy, but risks igniting internecine conflicts beyond the messy politics that is already playing out in Tripoli.
The worst offender is Qatar, according to several Tripoli-based diplomats. The small Gulf state was instrumental in arming the rebels. Earlier this year it sent hundreds of weapons shipments and military advisers to Libya and lobbied hard for international intervention. Not surprisingly, the Qataris are revered among Libyans. All over Tripoli, squares and districts have been renamed in their honour. Yet the Qataris are now supporting the political ambitions of hand-picked leaders and commanders, undermining attempts to form a unified military command. Some members of the National Transitional Council are seething. They say even during the war the Qataris bypassed them, sending weapons directly to favoured units at the front. To a lesser extent some Western powers are also pushing their own men or models.
This is not a new phenomenon in the Middle East. In Lebanon and Iraq, two volatile Arab democracies, outside powers run democratic proxies and interfere in national affairs at will—often out of self-interest. One political group is in the pockets of the Saudis, another is paid by the Iranians. If Libya wants to have a better future it must avoid going down that road, wise heads in Tripoli warn. Neighbours like Egypt have so far stayed out of Libya. But they will not want to be outflanked by Gulf states on their own doorstep.
Thankfully, Libya is coping well with liberation. Shops and cafés are once again open late, celebratory gunfire has died down, concerts are held in Tripoli’s Martyr’s Square, known as Green Square under previous management. Life has returned to normal. Admittedly, heavily armed groups from different parts of the country still control overlapping turfs. One Tripoli militia comprising about 50 gunmen is operating out of an appropriated computer-showroom decked out with revolutionary tricoloured flags. The militia was recently involved in a firefight with rivals. A squabble outside the Central Hospital between fighters from Zintan and Misrata left one dead.
But such skirmishes will not undermine the new order, says Bashir al-Sweie, a commander based in a government-owned arboretum, who would like to return to business once the security forces are in place. Many young men, said another commander, are frustrated that they risked their lives on the battlefield but have yet to be rewarded. A plan to educate and rehabilitate soldiers will probably take months. Outsiders who want to help could offer to support that, instead.
