Mitt Romney 10 percent lead in unskewed data from ARG poll
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and his wife Ann greet supporters during a campaign rally on September 1, 2012 in Jacksonville, Florida.
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The American Research Group (ARG) pollof the race between Mitt Romney andPresident Obama released today shows a 49 percent to 46 percent lead for the former governor of Massachusetts. The poll of 1200 likely voters, surveyed between September 4-6, has a margin of error of 3 percent. Over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, the survey sample included 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 28 percent independent voters.
The sampling of the ARG poll differs with thepartisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.
The ARG survey has Democrats favoring Obama by a 85 percent to 11 percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 92 percent to five percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 49 percent to 44 percent edge.
If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 53 percent to 43 percent margin over President Obama. That would be a lead of 10 percent, larger than any for Romney reported by any recent national poll.
The information published by ARG on the survey stated, “A total of 46 percent of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43 percent of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.”
Additionally, ARG reported, “A total of 87 percent of those likely voters saying they would vote for Obama say they would never vote for Romney. A total of 89 percent of those likely voters saying they would vote for Romney say they would never vote for Obama.”
This survey is not the only such poll recently to be skewed by over-sampling Democrats to skew the results in favor of Barack Obama. Earlier this week, the latest CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. Last month on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.
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September 7, 2012 - National General Election Ballot
| National | |
| Likely voters | Sep 4-6 |
| Obama | 46% |
| Romney | 49% |
| Other/Undecided | 5% |
| Sample size: 1200 likely voters Sample dates: September 4-6, 2012 Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points Question wording: If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan? (names rotated) | |
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 85% to 11% among self-described Democrats (38% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (34% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 49% to 44% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).
Romney leads Obama 54% to 41% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads Romney 51% to 45%.
Romney leads Obama 57% to 39% among white voters (76% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 89% to 5% among African American voters (12% of likely voters).
Obama leads Romney 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (51% of likely voters), Romney leads Obama 52% to 43%.
Romney leads Obama 50% to 46% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (83% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 48% to 45% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (17% of likely voters).
A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.
A total of 87% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Obama say they would never vote for Romney. A total of 89% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Romney say they would never vote for Obama.
