Barack Obama boosted by skewed NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll
U.S. President Barack Obama speaks to supporters on September 17, 2012 in Columbus, Ohio. President Obama spent the day in Ohio campaigning in Cincinnati and Columbus.
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Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images
While the new Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll released today shows a two point Mitt Romney lead in the presidential race, the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released today showsPresident Obama leading by five percent, 50 percent to 45 percent. This survey of 736 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.6 percent, was conducted between September 12-16. Unskewed, the data for this polls shows Romney leading seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent.
The sample included 32 percent Democrats, 38 percent independents and 25 percent Republicans. This poll clearly under-sample Republican voters. This data clearly differs with the Rasmussen Reports partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. The difference means the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll over-sampled Democratic voters by seven percent more than Republicans and a 11 percent more than the four percent Republican edge shown by the Rasmussen data.
While the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll did not disclose the cross-tabs for presidential preference among Republicans, Democrats and independents, that information was calculated by extrapolation. That estimate shows Republicans and Democrats each supported their own nominee by a margin of approximately 95 percent to 5 percent while independent voters narrowly supporter Romney 48 percent to 41 percent for Obama.
When the data from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is unskewed by weighting their reported percentages between Romney and Obama to the partisan affiliations showed by Rasmussen's extensive data results on that issue, the overall picture of Obama's approval to disapproval rating is different. With Republicans weighted 37.6 percent, Democrats at 33.3 percent and Independents at 29.2 percent, the results calculate to 44 percent approval to 54 percent disapproval. Likewise, instead of the reported 50 percent to 45 percent lead for Obama, the data actually indicates a Romney lead of 51 percent to 44 percent.
