Poll 7/1/12: Obama leads Romney by only 8 in Oregon 50-42. Hewon Oregon by 16 in 08:http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/obama-leads-by-8-in-oregon.html #RomneyRyan12 #tcot #p2
8:57 PM - 1 Sep 12 · Details
Obama leads by 8 in Oregon
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney just 50-42 in Oregon, a state that he won by 16 points in 2008 and where he led by 12 points in PPP's last poll, taken almost exactly a year ago.
The main reason the state's so close is that independents have really turned against Obama, and they support Romney by a 52-30 margin. But Oregon's still a pretty strongly Democratic state and with the party base unified around Obama at 86-8 it allows him to maintain a decent sized overall lead. Obama's also getting more support across party lines than Romney is, taking 11% of the Republican vote.
Oregon voters express only tepid approval for Obama's performance in office, with 49% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove. But Romney's lack of popularity makes it hard for him to pull closer in the state. Just 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one.
Obama's approval in Oregon is remarkably unchanged over the last year. In June of 2011 his approval spread was 49/45, and his current 49/46 is basically the same. Romney's favorability numbers have improved slightly from 31/47 to their current 37/51 level.
Oregon has one of the most pronounced gender gaps we've seen in any state over the course of this campaign. Obama leads 60-34 with women, but trails 50-39 with men. Obama's under 50% with every age group except young voters, whose 61-29 support pushes him up to 50% overall.
Obama's not likely to lose Oregon but these numbers certainly do reflect a weakened position relative to 2008.
Democrats look safe in all of Oregon's partisan downballot races for this fall. Secretary of State Kate Brown leads challenger Knute Buehler 48-30, Attorney General nominee Ellen Rosenblum is up 46-33 on foe James Buchal, and Treasurer Ted Wheeler has a 46-34 advantage over Tom Cox.
The one race where Republicans look to have a chance to win is Labor Commissioner, which is a nonpartisan position. In contrast to the partisan offices where most voters have made up their minds, 56% of voters haven't decided who they're voting for yet. The race is essentially tied with Republican Bruce Starr ahead of Democratic incumbent Brad Avakian 23-21.
