Obama, left, and Romney )
President Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan fueled by a wave of women moving toward the Democratic president following the national party conventions.
Obama leads Romney by 14.2 points, 52 percent to 37.8 percent, in the Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll, a solid improvement from August pre-convention polls in which the president held a six-point advantage, 48 percent to 42 percent. In this month's poll, 8.7 percent of voters were undecided.
Romney made a concerted pitch to women voters during the national GOP convention in Tampa, Fla., and Obama did the same at the Democratic convention in Charlotte, N.C. Both campaigns feature women prominently as surrogates or supporters at campaign stops. But poll results suggest the Democrats' convention lineup that focused heavily on women's health, and the federal auto rescue of General Motors and Chrysler resonated with independent females here. About 29 percent of Michigan women call themselves Republican, but women identifying themselves as Democrats shot up from 43 percent in August to 55 percent this month.
"Women … made a drastic move to the Democratic Party," said pollster Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group, Inc., which conducted the poll.
That shift gives Obama a dominating 20-point advantage over Romney among women compared to an 11-point lead in August. Obama also has improved from a near tie with Romney among men last month to an eight-point advantage this month.
"In 28 years of polling in Michigan, I don't think I've seen a gender gap this large before in Michigan," Czuba said. "… If women stay this strong for Democrats, there will be problems for Republicans all down the ballot."
The News poll showed the largest lead for Obama in Michigan among recent surveys. Earlier this month, polls showed Obama up by between two and 10 points.
The live telephone operator survey of 600 likely voters in the November election was conducted Saturday through Monday evening, when news broke of Romney's secretly taped comments depicting 47 percent of Americans as "victims" dependent on government. The remarks likely had some effect on the third night of calling, Czuba said.
Jordan Kemmerlin, 25, is supporting Obama because she believes he's improving the economy and better understands women her age.
"I think Mitt Romney is for the wealthy," said the Coloma resident, who juggles full-time work with two young children. "He hasn't had to go through what the middle class goes through. I don't think he understands what the middle class stands for."
Romney has tried in recent weeks to drive home the message of an ailing economy under Obama with a Ronald Reagan-inspired question: Are you better off than four years ago?
The plurality of Michiganians surveyed say they are indeed worse off in the four years under Obama (44.5 percent worse off, compared to 34.8 percent better off), with the exception being young voters under 30.
The overall preference for Obama, despite worse personal circumstances, suggests likely voters are not blaming him.
"Obama inherited a very bad situation from President (George W.) Bush," said Sarah Craft, 20, of Wixom, who's excited to cast her first presidential vote for Obama. "I think he's turning it around and we need to give him a second chance."
The high school graduate said she was turned off by Romney's comments earlier this year that young people could borrow money from their parents, which she says isn't an option for many.
Lidia Abate of Farmington Hills puts herself in the "worse off" category. She lost her $60,000 a year job as a business manager at age 60, which forced her into retirement after unsuccessful job searches. She and her husband, however, are financially stable due to a lifetime of budgeting.
An Italian immigrant, Abate says she'll vote for Romney because she believes in personal responsibility, not redistribution of wealth.
"We never asked for help from anyone," said Abate, now 63. "I don't agree with the trend in this country. … Everybody wants everything the easy way."
A Romney Michigan spokeswoman says they've seen a surge in grassroots enthusiasm. Compared to this point in 2008, Michigan volunteers have knocked on 17 times more doors and called five times the number of people.
"The president's policies have failed women," spokeswoman Kelsey Knight said in statement, noting all the job losses for women during Obama's term. "And the surge in volunteer engagement shows that Michiganders don't want the next four years to look like the last four."
Obama's campaign pointed to the Democratic National Convention that highlighted women's stories and Obama's record on equal pay and respecting women's rights on health care. That's in contrast to the Republican National Convention "extreme" platform that opposes abortion in cases of rape and incest, Obama Michigan spokesman Matt McGrath said.
"Michigan women know there's a real choice in this election, and that they have someone they can trust in the White House," McGrath said in a statement.
Strong Democrats and strong Republicans were equally excited to vote before the conventions, but Democrats now are slightly more motivated, the poll found. The most energized are African-American voters followed by women, the two bedrocks of Obama's coalition. Also of note, young voters are back on board with the president, improving from a six-point Obama advantage in August to a staggering 37-point lead among those under 30.
It's too early to tell if Obama's gains are a "convention bounce" or represents a fundamental change in the race, Czuba said.
"Even if this shift is merely a convention bounce that levels off, it will not be enough for Mitt Romney to overcome the fundamentals of this election that are in the Democrats' favor," he said.
For the first time in Czuba's Michigan polling, Obama's favorable rating has topped a majority at 55 percent, with positive or even ratings in every region in the state and every age group.
"Romney, conversely, is running unfavorable in every region of the state and in every age bracket," Czuba said.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
President Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan fueled by a wave of women moving toward the Democratic president following the national party conventions.
Obama leads Romney by 14.2 points, 52 percent to 37.8 percent, in the Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll, a solid improvement from August pre-convention polls in which the president held a six-point advantage, 48 percent to 42 percent. In this month's poll, 8.7 percent of voters were undecided.
Romney made a concerted pitch to women voters during the national GOP convention in Tampa, Fla., and Obama did the same at the Democratic convention in Charlotte, N.C. Both campaigns feature women prominently as surrogates or supporters at campaign stops. But poll results suggest the Democrats' convention lineup that focused heavily on women's health, and the federal auto rescue of General Motors and Chrysler resonated with independent females here. About 29 percent of Michigan women call themselves Republican, but women identifying themselves as Democrats shot up from 43 percent in August to 55 percent this month.
"Women … made a drastic move to the Democratic Party," said pollster Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group, Inc., which conducted the poll.
That shift gives Obama a dominating 20-point advantage over Romney among women compared to an 11-point lead in August. Obama also has improved from a near tie with Romney among men last month to an eight-point advantage this month.
"In 28 years of polling in Michigan, I don't think I've seen a gender gap this large before in Michigan," Czuba said. "… If women stay this strong for Democrats, there will be problems for Republicans all down the ballot."
The News poll showed the largest lead for Obama in Michigan among recent surveys. Earlier this month, polls showed Obama up by between two and 10 points.
The live telephone operator survey of 600 likely voters in the November election was conducted Saturday through Monday evening, when news broke of Romney's secretly taped comments depicting 47 percent of Americans as "victims" dependent on government. The remarks likely had some effect on the third night of calling, Czuba said.
Jordan Kemmerlin, 25, is supporting Obama because she believes he's improving the economy and better understands women her age.
"I think Mitt Romney is for the wealthy," said the Coloma resident, who juggles full-time work with two young children. "He hasn't had to go through what the middle class goes through. I don't think he understands what the middle class stands for."
Romney has tried in recent weeks to drive home the message of an ailing economy under Obama with a Ronald Reagan-inspired question: Are you better off than four years ago?
The plurality of Michiganians surveyed say they are indeed worse off in the four years under Obama (44.5 percent worse off, compared to 34.8 percent better off), with the exception being young voters under 30.
The overall preference for Obama, despite worse personal circumstances, suggests likely voters are not blaming him.
"Obama inherited a very bad situation from President (George W.) Bush," said Sarah Craft, 20, of Wixom, who's excited to cast her first presidential vote for Obama. "I think he's turning it around and we need to give him a second chance."
The high school graduate said she was turned off by Romney's comments earlier this year that young people could borrow money from their parents, which she says isn't an option for many.
Lidia Abate of Farmington Hills puts herself in the "worse off" category. She lost her $60,000 a year job as a business manager at age 60, which forced her into retirement after unsuccessful job searches. She and her husband, however, are financially stable due to a lifetime of budgeting.
An Italian immigrant, Abate says she'll vote for Romney because she believes in personal responsibility, not redistribution of wealth.
"We never asked for help from anyone," said Abate, now 63. "I don't agree with the trend in this country. … Everybody wants everything the easy way."
A Romney Michigan spokeswoman says they've seen a surge in grassroots enthusiasm. Compared to this point in 2008, Michigan volunteers have knocked on 17 times more doors and called five times the number of people.
"The president's policies have failed women," spokeswoman Kelsey Knight said in statement, noting all the job losses for women during Obama's term. "And the surge in volunteer engagement shows that Michiganders don't want the next four years to look like the last four."
Obama's campaign pointed to the Democratic National Convention that highlighted women's stories and Obama's record on equal pay and respecting women's rights on health care. That's in contrast to the Republican National Convention "extreme" platform that opposes abortion in cases of rape and incest, Obama Michigan spokesman Matt McGrath said.
"Michigan women know there's a real choice in this election, and that they have someone they can trust in the White House," McGrath said in a statement.
Strong Democrats and strong Republicans were equally excited to vote before the conventions, but Democrats now are slightly more motivated, the poll found. The most energized are African-American voters followed by women, the two bedrocks of Obama's coalition. Also of note, young voters are back on board with the president, improving from a six-point Obama advantage in August to a staggering 37-point lead among those under 30.
It's too early to tell if Obama's gains are a "convention bounce" or represents a fundamental change in the race, Czuba said.
"Even if this shift is merely a convention bounce that levels off, it will not be enough for Mitt Romney to overcome the fundamentals of this election that are in the Democrats' favor," he said.
For the first time in Czuba's Michigan polling, Obama's favorable rating has topped a majority at 55 percent, with positive or even ratings in every region in the state and every age group.
"Romney, conversely, is running unfavorable in every region of the state and in every age bracket," Czuba said.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120919/POLITICS01/209190472#ixzz271dsjkGg
