'Unskewed' polls show Romney up an average of 7.8 points, but are they accurate?
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#MSM has their candidate, we have to vote in Nov! RT @CainTV: Unskewed polls show Romney up an average of 7.8 points http://t.co/PY8LCTr3Politics: 'Unskewed' polls show Romney up an average of 7.8 points, but are they accurate?
Published by: Robert Laurie on Monday September 24th, 2012
By ROBERT LAURIE - New site seeks to reverse oversampling and over-estimation of Democrat turnout
Earlier today, Dan Calabrese gave his assessment of why Dick Morris’s claim of an impending Romney victory might not be so far off. The argument is that polling is currently skewed heavily in Obama's favor by oversampling Democrats and overestimating left-wing turnout.
Just to follow up on that a bit, I thought I’d draw your attention to a new website, called Unskewedpolls.com. Basically, what these guys do is take the polling numbers from major news outlets and pollsters, then adjust them to undo oversampling and overstated Democrat turnout based on the 2008 models. If you believe the polls are currently skewed in Obama’s favor – as many do – these numbers seek to reverse that.
When the data is “unskewed,” they find Romney winning across all polls by an average of 7.8 points.
At the same time, Obama’s approval rating actually does a little better. Where most polls show the President with a negative around 9 or 10 points in the hole, “unskewed” the average is 8.8 points.
Please take note. I’m not posting this information because I’m sure it’s right. Frankly, no one really knows if it’s correct or not, and no one will find out until November 6th. If I had to hazard a guess, I’d say the polling is skewed in Obama’s favor, but this site goes too far in the other direction.
To be fair, these numbers may not be "unskewed" as much as they are "re-skewed for accuracy." However, should Obama lose by numbers that are predicted by unskewedpolls.com, it will be fascinating to try and figure out just why the big names got it so wrong.
