Oct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/oct-...fter-debate-strong-swing-state-polls-for-romney/
nytimes The New York Times
Nate Silver sees "very good numbers" for Romneyafter debates, but with caveats.http://t.co/rtBHUbpU via @fivethirtyeightOct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney
By NATE SILVER
On Friday, Mitt Romney had his best day in state-level polling since at least the party conventions, something that very probably reflects improvement in his standing following the presidential debate in Denver on Wednesday.
Two automated polling firms, Rasmussen Reports and We Ask America, released polls in Ohio, Florida and Virginia on Friday. All of these polls were conducted on Thursday, the day after the Denver debate.
In the Rasmussen Reports polls, Mr. Romney trailed Barack Obama by 1 point in Ohio. But he led him by 1 point in Virginia and by 2 points in Florida.
These are very good numbers for Mr. Romney as compared with the ones we were seeing recently, although part of that is because Rasmussen has shown more favorable numbers for him in these states throughout the year. As compared with Rasmussen Reports’ previous polls of the same states, the margin in Ohio held steady, but Mr. Romney gained 2 points in Virginia and 4 in Florida, for an average gain of 2 points among the three states.
The We Ask America polls suggested that Mr. Romney made much larger gains. He led in all three states in its polls — and gained an average of 7 points from We Ask America’s prior polling of the same states.
Mr. Romney’s bounce has been less apparent in national tracking polls so far. The Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll held steady, showing a 2-point lead for Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama actually gained 1 point in the Gallup national tracking poll, however, and about 1.5 percentage points in the online tracking poll conducted by the RAND Corporation.
