Mark,
Here is why Ohio is TIE, or a surprise on election day
Ohio is quickly becoming the decision maker state. Last
election Obama 2,700,000 and McCain had 2,500,000 votes. Interestingly In early
voting (20%) Obama won by +280,000 which actually means McCain must have won by
approx. 80k votes on election day. Also this 4% win, was three percent less
than the national popular vote…. It gets more interesting
EARLY VOTING – So how is early voting doing this year. A
professor in Ohio has been tracking this. In 2009 and he shows very clearly
that early voting will only account for about half the early lead as 2008, this
would start the race on election day with Obama +140,000
INDEPENDENTS – They were clearly eight percent favorites got
Obama in 08, and currently trending at about +7% Romney in 2012. That is a
spread of 15%. Let’s assume, so math can stay easy, that there are 20%
Independents in Ohio, out of 5M likely voters. That’s about 1M voters total. In
other words Obama 540,000 McCain 460,000, should flip to Romney +160000
YOUTH VOTING – Since I have already virtually explained a
tie, I’ll stop doing math and just bring up a few last points. Youth voting is
expected to be down 10-15% nationwide this election, not really down as much as
back to the 2005, 2000, 1996 average. Everyone was just really excited in 08,
this won’t happen this year, and they were voting 2-1 Obama in 08. Election
day Romney gets a couple extra % points
POLLING “OVERSAMPLE” – The polling numbers, except Rasmussen
and Gallup are running and Oversample guestimate skew of Dem+8 on average, and
in 2010 this was Dem+3, 2008 that was Dem+5, in 2004 Even and in 2000
Rep+2, so Dem+8 is just wrong, and CNN, PPP, FOX, NBC, etc are all off by 3-5%
on each and every poll. I don’t think it’s malicious, the whole idea of likely
voters is brand new, everyone is doing the same math, they just assigning a few
variables wrong. Election day Romney gets a couple extra % points
I have facts to back all this up if you want links to
spreadsheets, tried to keep this as simple as possible. I love math but it gets
very confusing to explain sometimes…
Robby
