Kathleen Schmelzer, front, and her daughter, Caroline Schmelzer, a first time voter, vote Friday afternoon at the Fairfield County Board of Elections Office at the Liberty Center. / Jess Lanning/Eagle-Gazette
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COLUMBUS — An Ohio history professor’s analysis of absentee ballot requests found a significant shift in Republican enthusiasm in the battleground state since 2008.
The University of Dayton’s Larry Schweikart tallied absentee ballot requests so far in 2012 and compared them to similar requests four years ago. His review showed a 7-point swing in favor of the GOP.
Still more Democrats than Republicans requested early ballots, but Democrats’ percentage advantage has shifted from 33-19 in 2008 to 30-23 this year.
“In 2008, Obama cleaned McCain in absentee voting,” Schweikart said in a news release announcing the findings. “McCain actually won the statewide vote on Election Day, but he was too far buried in the absentee and early vote count. Early voting in Ohio began earlier this month and could still produce some surprises.”
Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the state’s large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift.
“In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties,” he said. “What this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and I’m predicting a total shift from 2008.”
The analysis assumes undeclared voters will be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.
