Mitt's lead with independents tops Obama's in '08

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National Review Online

by: Josh Jordan

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Mitt's lead with independents tops Obama's in '08

Gallup and Rasmussen, which have been tracking party affiliation, both show independent voters shifting to Mitt Romney, a boost that could see the Republican winning on Election Day by 4 points. Photo Credit:AP

Gallup released a demographic poll of likely voters from October 1 through October 24. The poll is of 9,424 likely voters — a large enough sample that the maximum margin of error is 1 point. In other words, this is a very comprehensive poll of the electorate, unlike smaller polls, that has much more reliability, especially in the subgroups, than any current national poll. The headline of the poll, “2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008,” would make Team Obama want to pick up the phone and reserve Grant Park for election-night festivities, but looking at the data inside may have them preferring to rent out a Lou Malnati’s so they can drown their sorrows in a deep-dish pizza as the results pour in. ...

In the current tracking poll, Gallup finds that the 10-point advantage for Democrats has now turned into a 1-point Republican advantage. The current party breakdown is now 35 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. And just in like 2008, that 1-point advantage increases when independents are asked which party they typically lean to, with 49 percent identifying as Republicans and 46 percent as Democrats. That number backs up the trends in other polling showing Romney leading among independents by large margins. ...

But here’s why you can feel the panic emanating from Chicago: Romney is currently doing better with independents than Obama did in 2008. Obama won independents by 8 in 2008, while Romney is currently leading by 10.6 points on average. If the independent numbers are entered in to the 2008 results, Romney would have a victory of more than 4 points. Even if Romney does not take any more crossover votes (Democrats who vote Republican and vice versa) than McCain got in 2008, he would still win by more than 4 points on Election Day.

Read more:http://times247.com/articles/romney-s-lead-with-independents-could-hand-him-victory#ixzz2AhvqcmXC