A New Purple Strategies Poll on Ohio gives Obama 46%, Romney 44%. http://bit.ly/R7fGKI #Election2012
Released October 25, 2012
The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.
QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.
Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.
Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:
Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado
Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat
Florida: 54-46 Romney
Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this
Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected
Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry
Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many
Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many
New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney
New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number
New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico
Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney
Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise
Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset
Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected
Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing.
Data from last four elections and projection of popular vote by state for 2012
The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.
QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.
Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.
Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:
Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado
Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat
Florida: 54-46 Romney
Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this
Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected
Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry
Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many
Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many
New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney
New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number
New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico
Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney
Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise
Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset
Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected
Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing.
Data from last four elections and projection of popular vote by state for 2012
| State | Clinton 1996 | Dole 1996 | Gore 2000 | Bush 2000 | Kerry 2004 | Bush 2004 | Obama 2008 | McCain 2008 | State | Projected Obama | Projected Romney | Projected pop Obama | Projected pop Romney |
| Alabama | 43.00 | 50.00 | 42.00 | 56.00 | 37.00 | 63.00 | 39.00 | 60.00 | Alabama | 35.60 | 65.22 | 776249 | 1422106 |
| Alaska | 33.00 | 51.00 | 28.00 | 59.00 | 35.50 | 61.10 | 37.70 | 60.20 | Alaska | 28.90 | 65.80 | 83295 | 189648 |
| Arizona | 46.00 | 44.00 | 45.00 | 51.00 | 44.40 | 54.90 | 45.00 | 53.80 | Arizona | 40.45 | 58.90 | 883941 | 1287123 |
| Arkansas | 54.00 | 37.00 | 46.00 | 51.00 | 44.50 | 54.40 | 38.80 | 58.80 | Arkansas | 41.18 | 58.27 | 454321 | 642868 |
| California | 51.00 | 38.00 | 53.00 | 42.00 | 54.30 | 44.40 | 60.90 | 37.30 | California | 57.15 | 42.40 | 7008802 | 5199881 |
| Colorado | 44.00 | 46.00 | 42.00 | 51.00 | 47.00 | 51.70 | 53.50 | 44.90 | Colorado | 44.98 | 54.37 | 1056479 | 1277029 |
| Connecticut | 52.00 | 35.00 | 56.00 | 38.00 | 54.30 | 43.90 | 60.50 | 38.30 | Connecticut | 51.05 | 46.77 | 857386 | 785503 |
| Delaware | 52.00 | 37.00 | 55.00 | 42.00 | 53.30 | 45.80 | 61.90 | 37.00 | Delaware | 53.90 | 45.42 | 230766 | 194460 |
| District of Columbia | 85.00 | 9.00 | 85.00 | 9.00 | 89.20 | 9.30 | 92.90 | 6.50 | District of Columbia | 92.38 | 6.42 | 218465 | 15182 |
| Florida | 48.00 | 42.00 | 49.00 | 49.00 | 47.10 | 52.10 | 50.90 | 48.40 | Florida | 46.10 | 53.85 | 3912739 | 4570521 |
| Georgia | 46.00 | 47.00 | 43.00 | 55.00 | 41.40 | 58.00 | 47.00 | 52.20 | Georgia | 39.70 | 61.02 | 1622253 | 2493449 |
| Hawaii | 57.00 | 32.00 | 56.00 | 37.00 | 54.00 | 45.30 | 71.80 | 26.60 | Hawaii | 55.05 | 43.20 | 257352 | 201955 |
| Idaho | 34.00 | 52.00 | 28.00 | 67.00 | 30.30 | 68.40 | 36.10 | 61.50 | Idaho | 27.45 | 70.20 | 183371 | 468949 |
| Illinois | 54.00 | 37.00 | 55.00 | 43.00 | 54.80 | 44.50 | 61.80 | 36.90 | Illinois | 53.75 | 46.32 | 2991410 | 2577900 |
| Indiana | 42.00 | 47.00 | 41.00 | 57.00 | 39.30 | 59.90 | 49.90 | 49.00 | Indiana | 38.40 | 61.20 | 1092013 | 1740395 |
| Iowa | 50.00 | 40.00 | 49.00 | 48.00 | 49.30 | 49.90 | 54.00 | 44.70 | Iowa | 45.93 | 53.62 | 721347 | 842121 |
| Kansas | 36.00 | 54.00 | 37.00 | 58.00 | 36.60 | 62.00 | 41.40 | 56.80 | Kansas | 33.10 | 65.67 | 412027 | 817458 |
| Kentucky | 46.00 | 45.00 | 41.00 | 57.00 | 39.70 | 59.50 | 41.10 | 57.50 | Kentucky | 37.30 | 62.72 | 700965 | 1178674 |
| Louisiana | 52.00 | 40.00 | 45.00 | 53.00 | 42.20 | 56.70 | 39.90 | 58.60 | Louisiana | 40.13 | 60.05 | 812638 | 1216020 |
| Maine | 52.00 | 31.00 | 49.00 | 44.00 | 53.60 | 44.60 | 57.60 | 40.50 | Maine | 49.40 | 49.20 | 372260 | 370753 |
| Maryland | 54.00 | 38.00 | 56.00 | 40.00 | 56.00 | 43.00 | 61.90 | 36.80 | Maryland | 54.33 | 45.42 | 1436751 | 1201127 |
| Massachusetts | 61.00 | 28.00 | 60.00 | 33.00 | 62.00 | 36.90 | 62.00 | 36.20 | Massachusetts | 56.60 | 41.50 | 1780147 | 1305231 |
| Michigan | 52.00 | 38.00 | 51.00 | 46.00 | 51.20 | 47.80 | 57.40 | 40.90 | Michigan | 48.25 | 51.15 | 2488585 | 2638158 |
| Minnesota | 51.00 | 35.00 | 48.00 | 46.00 | 51.50 | 48.00 | 54.20 | 44.00 | Minnesota | 46.53 | 51.22 | 1391786 | 1532072 |
| Mississippi | 44.00 | 49.00 | 41.00 | 58.00 | 40.10 | 59.10 | 42.80 | 56.40 | Mississippi | 37.33 | 63.60 | 473545 | 806789 |
| Missouri | 47.00 | 41.00 | 47.00 | 50.00 | 46.10 | 53.30 | 49.30 | 49.40 | Missouri | 42.70 | 56.40 | 1292914 | 1707737 |
| Montana | 41.00 | 44.00 | 33.00 | 58.00 | 38.60 | 59.10 | 47.20 | 49.70 | Montana | 35.30 | 60.67 | 174777 | 300388 |
| Nebraska | 35.00 | 54.00 | 33.00 | 62.00 | 32.70 | 66.00 | 41.50 | 57.00 | Nebraska | 30.90 | 67.72 | 249953 | 547794 |
| Nevada | 44.00 | 43.00 | 46.00 | 50.00 | 48.10 | 50.70 | 55.10 | 42.70 | Nevada | 46.65 | 52.57 | 462332 | 521003 |
| New Hampshire | 49.00 | 39.00 | 47.00 | 48.00 | 50.40 | 49.00 | 54.30 | 44.80 | New Hampshire | 45.53 | 53.17 | 335376 | 391653 |
| New Jersey | 54.00 | 36.00 | 56.00 | 40.00 | 53.00 | 46.20 | 56.80 | 42.10 | New Jersey | 50.43 | 49.05 | 1922429 | 1869822 |
| New Mexico | 49.00 | 42.00 | 48.00 | 48.00 | 49.00 | 49.80 | 56.70 | 42.00 | New Mexico | 46.03 | 53.42 | 390653 | 453371 |
| New York | 59.00 | 31.00 | 60.00 | 35.00 | 58.40 | 40.10 | 62.20 | 36.70 | New York | 55.25 | 43.67 | 4025920 | 3182116 |
| North Carolina | 44.00 | 49.00 | 43.00 | 56.00 | 43.60 | 56.10 | 49.90 | 49.50 | North Carolina | 40.48 | 60.62 | 1799232 | 2694403 |
| North Dakota | 40.00 | 47.00 | 33.00 | 61.00 | 35.50 | 62.90 | 44.70 | 53.30 | North Dakota | 33.65 | 64.02 | 109402 | 208140 |
| Ohio | 47.00 | 40.00 | 46.00 | 50.00 | 48.70 | 50.80 | 51.20 | 47.20 | Ohio | 45.58 | 53.97 | 2493712 | 2952735 |
| Oklahoma | 40.00 | 48.00 | 38.00 | 60.00 | 34.40 | 65.60 | 34.40 | 65.60 | Oklahoma | 32.05 | 67.77 | 492013 | 1040365 |
| Oregon | 47.00 | 39.00 | 47.00 | 47.00 | 51.60 | 47.40 | 57.10 | 40.80 | Oregon | 46.03 | 51.52 | 811137 | 907881 |
| Pennsylvania | 49.00 | 40.00 | 51.00 | 46.00 | 51.00 | 48.50 | 54.70 | 44.30 | Pennsylvania | 46.78 | 52.67 | 2838495 | 3195885 |
| Rhode Island | 60.00 | 27.00 | 61.00 | 32.00 | 59.40 | 38.70 | 63.10 | 35.30 | Rhode Island | 56.23 | 41.22 | 258912 | 189798 |
| South Carolina | 44.00 | 50.00 | 41.00 | 57.00 | 41.00 | 58.10 | 44.90 | 53.80 | South Carolina | 38.08 | 62.70 | 747252 | 1230375 |
| South Dakota | 43.00 | 46.00 | 38.00 | 60.00 | 38.40 | 59.90 | 44.70 | 53.20 | South Dakota | 36.38 | 62.75 | 142828 | 246357 |
| Tennessee | 48.00 | 46.00 | 47.00 | 51.00 | 42.60 | 56.90 | 41.80 | 56.90 | Tennessee | 40.20 | 60.67 | 1076876 | 1625225 |
| Texas | 44.00 | 49.00 | 38.00 | 59.00 | 38.20 | 61.10 | 43.80 | 55.50 | Texas | 36.35 | 64.12 | 3049168 | 5378615 |
| Utah | 33.00 | 54.00 | 26.00 | 67.00 | 26.40 | 72.70 | 34.20 | 62.90 | Utah | 25.25 | 72.12 | 227283 | 649175 |
| Vermont | 53.00 | 31.00 | 51.00 | 41.00 | 58.90 | 38.80 | 67.80 | 30.60 | Vermont | 53.03 | 43.32 | 177009 | 144598 |
| Virginia | 45.00 | 47.00 | 44.00 | 52.00 | 45.60 | 53.80 | 52.70 | 46.40 | Virginia | 42.18 | 57.77 | 1631794 | 2234916 |
| Washington | 50.00 | 37.00 | 50.00 | 45.00 | 52.80 | 45.60 | 57.50 | 40.50 | Washington | 50.93 | 48.76 | 1414351 | 1354089 |
| West Virginia | 51.00 | 37.00 | 46.00 | 52.00 | 43.20 | 56.10 | 42.60 | 55.70 | West Virginia | 41.05 | 58.17 | 299871 | 424933 |
| Wisconsin | 49.00 | 39.00 | 48.00 | 48.00 | 49.70 | 49.40 | 56.30 | 42.40 | Wisconsin | 46.10 | 52.67 | 1417615 | 1619649 |
| Wyoming | 37.00 | 50.00 | 28.00 | 68.00 | 29.10 | 69.00 | 32.70 | 65.20 | Wyoming | 27.05 | 71.02 | 68488 | 179817 |
| Total | 49.00 | 41.00 | 48.00 | 48.00 | 48.30 | 50.70 | 53.00 | 46.00 | Total | 45.92 | 53.63 | 60128685 | 70226212 |
