Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Romney 50% Obama 47% - Rasmussen Reports™ http://shar.es/cAin8 via @sharethis
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sunday, October 28, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. See daily tracking history.
The president wins support from 86% of Democrats, while Romney has 90% of the Republican vote. Among unaffiliated voters, it’s Romney by 11 points.
The generation gap remains huge. Obama has a big lead among those under 40, while Romney has an equally sizable lead among older voters. Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based near where Hurricane Sandy is expected to come ashore. We are planning on providing our usual updates over the coming days, but there may be disruptions due to the storm and its aftermath.
Fifty-two percent (52%) believe it’s too easy to get food stamps in America. Just 11% believe it’s too hard.
Twenty-four percent (24%) believe today’s children will be better off than their parents. That’s a depressingly low number, but the most optimistic assessment measured in years.
Democrat Elizabeth Warren has a five-point advantage over Senator Scott Brown in theMassachusetts Senate race. That state is now rated Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen ReportsSenate Balance of Power rankings. Overall, the projections indicate that Democrats will end up with 48 Senate seats and the Republicans with 47. These totals include five states leaning towards the Democrats and four leaning to the GOP. There are five remaining Toss-Ups: Connecticut Montana, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
In the race for the White House, the numbers are even in Wisconsin. That explains why the Badger State is receiving visits this week from Obama, Romney, Paul Ryan and Joe Biden. The importance of this state in the Electoral College battle is hard to overemphasize. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year.
The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado, Florida,Iowa,Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio,Virginia and Wisconsin.
New polling from North Carolina continues to show Romney with a six-point lead. The president is up five in Pennsylvania.
The economy, the debates and the Electoral College were the topics on this week’s edition of What America Thinks , Scott Rasmussen’s new weekly television show. Joining Scott to discuss the foreign policy issues of Election 2012 are Terra Lawson-Remer of the Council on Foreign Relations and Michael Balboni, the former head of homeland security for New York. The show is seen on more than 60 stations nationwide.
If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”
(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).
Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. In addition to the new TV show, we regularly release our work at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate.
Rasmussen Reports polling tends to show less volatility than other polls for a variety of reasons. In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign. Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead. This stable assessment of the race is consistent with the reality of what we know about voter behavior. Obama won the election by a 53% to 46% margin.
To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(Approval Index data below)
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 31% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12 (see trends).
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout. Still, all indications so far for Election 2012 suggest that Republicans are more engaged and more likely to turn out.
(More below)
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy." During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter, the Rasmussen Report on radio and other media outlets.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll andcommentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $3.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on Election 2012, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here.
