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Can Obama Be Defeated by Romney? Surprising Poll Data Revealed
Wednesday, 03 Oct 2012 06:34 PM
In fact, this coming presidential election may be the nail-biter of the century!
Major polls now show the two candidates running neck and neck, with a significant percentage of voters still undecided.
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That normally bodes poorly for the incumbent, since the majority of undecided voters will cast their vote for the challenger.
But a number of indicators suggest this year could be very different, and actually favor Obama.
For one, Americans say Obama is more “likable” than Romney, according to a recent USA Today/Gallup poll, which showed that Obama holds a 60 percent to 31 percent edge on this characteristic.
Studies have shown that the more “likable” candidate wins 70 percent or more of public elections!
Obama also holds a significant lead over Romney among women voters.
Another USA Today/Gallup survey found that more than 6 in 10 women prefer Obama. And a Quinnipiac University poll found Obama leading Romney among women in the key swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio by 6 to 19 percentage points.
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Minority voters largely prefer Obama as well. In 2008, Obama won 67 percent of the Hispanic vote to John McCain's 31 percent.
A Pew Research poll released this month found Romney with even less support than McCain among Hispanics — 27 percent. And a new Washington Post/ABC News survey showed Obama with 92 percent of the African-American vote to Romney’s 5 percent.
But Romney has several factors working in his favor.
He is strongly liked for his business skills. A USA Today/Gallup poll found that 46 percent of voters think Romney can manage the government effectively, compared to 43 percent for Obama.
Another survey of registered voters found that 61 percent believe Romney would do a very good or good job of handling the economy, while just 52 percent feel that way about Obama.
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Another strong point for Romney: a Rasmussen Reports poll released in late May showed the 63 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, an ominous sign for the incumbent.
Polls in swing states also point toward a close election in November. A recent Quinnipiac University survey in Ohio showed Obama and Romney in a statistical tie in that key state.
Romney leads Obama 47 percent to 41 percent in Florida, according to another Quinnipiac survey, while Obama holds an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania. Since 1960, no candidate has won the White House without winning at least 2 of those 3 states.
In Virginia, which is shaping up to be a hotly contested state this year, surveys by the Washington Post and Public Policy Polling both have Obama with a razor-thin majority of the votes — 51 percent — while a Rasmussen Reports poll has Romney ahead by 1 percentage point in that state.
Clearer differences may emerge as the campaigns proceed, but right now the polls indicate that the 2012 presidential election will not be won in a landslide.
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