Robby Ball
7:12 PM -
+1'd on egyptday1.blogspot.com
- Public
Saturday: PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48, down from a 51-46 advantage a week ago »
PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48, down from a 51-46 advantage a week ago. Romney's closing the gap thanks to a lead among independents (49/42) and because the Republ...
A Potential Scenario on November 6 in Ohio = A Tie!
2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests,
Total (all counties) 2008 1351226 Dem 445525 32.97% Rep 257936 19.09% A Difference of 13.88% and now in 2012 so far Total (all counties) 1026863 Dem 301492 29.36% 234630 22.85% A Difference 6.51%
Quick math shows in 2008 final vote was 2.7M to 2.5M a difference of 200,000 votes. Also absentee voting even though it was only 14% of the vote was a diff of 200,000 votes.... Hmm interesting
That means the rest of the vote was 50/50 between Obama and McCain. Looking above the current spread this year is 65000 votes due to early voting... Will be very interesting....
Oh if you want to do math and research. 18-29 voters who turned out 20% higher than average in 2008, are expected top returm to normal levels this year. HINT that's about 19% of voter population, and they voted 2-1 Obama last time
I just did the math quickly in my head, and assuming the same 50/50 vote on election day. It's and exact tie. or out of 5.2 million votes I came up with Obama plus 5000 votes.... It's gonna be really really close doing this math
+1
Hide comments
Cougar Abogado8:01 PM (edited)
Expand this comment »
Hmm. I'm unsure where pollsters are getting their D/R/I sampling ideas. PPP has the breakdown at 42/34/23 or D+8 (edit: Q20). It was D+8 in 2008 and R+1 in 2010 . . . Few more tidbits: Romney +7 among independents and has 90% of Republicans, while Pres. Obama has 86% of Democrats.
Robby Ball8:19 PMEdit
Collapse this comment
+Cougar Abogado +Kathleen Gick 2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests, Total (all counties) 2008 1351226 Dem 445525 32.97% Rep 257936 19.09% A Difference of 13.88% and now in 2012 so far Total (all counties) 1026863 Dem 301492 29.36% 234630 22.85% A Difference 6.51%
Quick math shows in 2008 final vote was 2.7M to 2.5M a difference of 200,000 votes. Also absentee voting even though it was only 14% of the vote was a diff of 200,000 votes.... Hmm interesting
That means the rest of the vote was 50/50 between Obama and McCain. Looking above the current spread this year is 65000 votes due to early voting... Will be very interesting....
Oh if you want to do math and research. 18-29 voters who turned out 20% higher than average in 2008, are expected top returm to normal levels this year. HINT that's about 19% of voter population, and they voted 2-1 Obama last time
I just did the math quickly in my head, and assuming the same 50/50 vote on election day. It's and exact tie. or out of 5.2 million votes I came up with Obama plus 5000 votes.... It's gonna be really really close doing this math
Quick math shows in 2008 final vote was 2.7M to 2.5M a difference of 200,000 votes. Also absentee voting even though it was only 14% of the vote was a diff of 200,000 votes.... Hmm interesting
That means the rest of the vote was 50/50 between Obama and McCain. Looking above the current spread this year is 65000 votes due to early voting... Will be very interesting....
Oh if you want to do math and research. 18-29 voters who turned out 20% higher than average in 2008, are expected top returm to normal levels this year. HINT that's about 19% of voter population, and they voted 2-1 Obama last time
I just did the math quickly in my head, and assuming the same 50/50 vote on election day. It's and exact tie. or out of 5.2 million votes I came up with Obama plus 5000 votes.... It's gonna be really really close doing this math
