Monday, December 10, 2012

Egypt has turmoil and... it's a normal shaking out process.) An 80 Million Strong Rising Tide Takes Time to Settle

(Yes Egypt has turmoil and... it's a normal shaking out process.) An 80 Million Strong Rising Tide Takes Time to Settle 
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7:15 AM - 10 Dec 12 · Details

An 80 Million Strong Rising Tide Takes Time to Settle

POLITICS |  | DECEMBER 10, 2012 6:00 AM
This is The Monday Line
by Denis G, Campbell
The ongoing strife in Egypt creates dramatic headlines. Middle East FOX News pundit doomsayers were predicting Morsi was becoming a new Mubarak, Egypt would become radicalised, even… an Iranian-styled theocracy and Hamas would run rampant because the US, under President Obama, was “leading from behind” in that region.
Revolution is easy. Forming a new government takes time and lots of pain. The entire region is still feeling its way around the seismic changes begun in December, 2010 when a Tunisian fruit vendor Mohammed Bouazizi set himself and the region ablaze in an uprising the world would later call ‘The Arab Spring.’
As a nation state the best strategy is to let them all get on with sorting it themselves rather than inserting yourself into a Sunni vs. Shia, secular vs. theocratic battle across the region. For the most part, the US and UK have done just that. Let these emerging nation states find their own way then help them to maintain peace in the region.
Why? 21 months ago tomorrow, Egyptian democracy leaders toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s regime. All sides guessed (then handled it) very badly during that uprising. The end result has been a region wide distrust of NATO and bad actors flexing their muscles.
The Ongoing Game of Dominoes
Since the regime fell, Egypt has seen:
  • relative disappearance of the activists who led the original revolt,
  • rise in power of the previously outlawed Muslim Brotherhood,
  • a trial and conviction of Hosni Mubarak and his sons,
  • ongoing persecution of Coptic Christians,
  • feet dragging by the military to support any new power structure beyond their own,
  • attempts to eliminate the role of women in this modern society,
  • a 1st ever real parliamentary election,
  • surprise judicial coup (as they threw out that Parliament),
  • first ever real Presidential election where Morsi defeated a former Mubarak supporter,
  • firing of General Tantawi-head of the SCAF-by that new President,
  • at times violent demonstrations in the streets,
  • military again ominously silent whilst still controlling engine of business power,
  • a power grab decree by the new President trying to blunt the judiciary and military,
  • the rush of a draft Constitution set for election ratification (which will likely fail) and
  • on Saturday evening, a Morsi walk-back of the new powers decree by the President when demonstrations threatened to topple him.
Can you imagine the mess if the US had inserted itself into every single one of these crisis points? We’d all have a collective case of whiplash. Just as with the recently completed US Presidential election, ignore the daily tracking polls, focus on the broader direction and demographic trends. Ask yourself, where does the region have to go now to satisfy the multiple grass roots revolutions and uprisings by peoples who know their government is broken.

Posted by Robby Ball at 3:23 AM