Sunday, January 27, 2013

#Egypt Written week after Jan 25 2011 Egyptian revolution stands up pretty well,


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  • This column I wrote week after Jan 25 2011 Egyptian revolution stands up pretty well, unfortunately

    Victory in Tahrir Square
    REUTERS/Dylan MartinezVictory in Tahrir Square
    Egyptians are celebrating the fall of Hosni Mubarak. But we are not Egyptians. We are entitled to ask: What does this event mean for us? For Western interests? For peace in the Middle East? For the security of energy supplies? Western governments hope for a transition to an Egypt that is more democratic while still Western-oriented. But such a transition will not be easy to achieve.
    Mubarak fell because he could not deliver prosperity to his people. Half the population of Egypt lives on $2 a day or less. Millions of Egyptians depend on state-subsidized bread. When Hosni Mubarak took power in 1981, the average Egyptian was 2.5 times richer than the average Chinese citizen. Today, the average Chinese is 50% richer than the average Egyptian.
    Egypt has the largest population of unemployed university graduates in the Middle East. It is the world’s largest importer of grain: Sixty percent of the grain eaten in Egypt is purchased abroad, and at prices that have risen sharply since 2005.

    Egypt has lost the ability to feed itself in large part because the population has doubled since Mubarak took power in 1981 — and quadrupled since 1950. Displaced peasants move to urban slums: Cairo’s population is estimated at some 17 million.
    Disappointed by meager opportunities, these new city-dwellers turn for consolation to more intense forms of religion, which promise that Islamic government can deliver social justice. If Egypt’s new government does not deliver quick results, that Islamic message will gain appeal.
    I agree with the analysis who say that Mubarak’s long hold on power strengthened the Islamists. Gradual democratization will stabilize E
Posted by Robby Ball at 4:23 PM