Why did Israel attack Syria now, and why did the Syrians admit it?

The alleged Israeli attack came one day after an Iranian announcement that Tehran will view any attack on Syrian territory as an attack against Iran itself.

By Amos Harel | Feb.01, 2013 | 1:24 AM

Approximate path of alleged Israeli strike on Syria's border with Lebanon, Jan. 30, 2013, according to foreign reports.

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Amos Harel

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Two days before the night when Israeli planes attacked a weapons convoy or "Scientific Research Center" in Syria - according to reports in the foreign press - Iran sent Israel an explicit warning message. Tehran, said the Iranian announcement, will view any attack on Syrian territory as an attack against Iran itself.

The warning came immediately after a wave of reports in the Israeli media about heightened tensions on the northern border; and along with remarks by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a cabinet meeting in which he directly addresses the fears that advanced Syrian weaponry would slip into the hands of others.

Now after the reported attack in Syria, the Iranians have repeated their warnings strongly. Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi condemned the airstrike on state television, criticizing the "Zionist regime" for a clear violation of Syria's sovereignty. The semi-official Fars news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian as saying the raid on Syria would have significant implications for Tel Aviv.

Israel has been agonizing for years over the question of whether or not to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. So why did Israel this time - once again based on foreign sources - decide to take a risk and act inside Syria despite the clear warning from Iran (if it did, of course )? It can be assumed that there were urgent operational reasons, such as the need to prevent specific weapons from being transferred from Syria to Hezbollah. It also seems that Israel is not particularly impressed by Iranian threats.

The combination of strategic circumstances in the region at the moment makes the chance of a direct Iranian response unlikely. A Syrian military response seems even less likely, though neither possibility can be ruled out.

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