Israel’s strike on Syria as a dress rehearsal for conflict with Iranhttp://wapo.st/UGsxce
The Washington Post
8:08 PM - 31 Jan 13 · Details
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a cabinet meeting. (Baz Ratner – Pool/Getty Images)
The Israel-Iran standoff, in which Israel has long signaled its willingness to strike suspected Iranian nuclear sites if they come too close to producing a weapon, got a sort of very-small-scale dress rehearsal on Wednesday. The Israeli air force attacked a target inside Syria, Tehran’s closest ally, which set off the expected condemnations (from Syria, Iran, Russia and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah) and fears of reprisal.
Both Israel and Iran will likely be observing the fallout from the attack closely, trying to determine what it might say about how an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would play out in the region. It’s too early to say what, if anything, they could learn. But the possibility that they might extrapolate lessons about a potential Israel-Iran conflict gives added significance – and added risk – to every action and reaction in the coming hours and days.
Because Israel can’t know for sure how Tehran and regional leaders would respond to a strike on Iran, its perceptions of their likely reactions could play a big role in determining whether or when it actually attacks. Tehran, for its part, is likely to pace its nuclear program in part based on what it believes it can get away with before prompting an Israeli or U.S. strike. Israel’s attack in Syria, then, could be an opportunity for both Israel and Iran to test the other’s will and to see whether they’re able to change the risk-reward calculus.
As Iran has continued to grow its nuclear program, Israel – and the United States – have warned Tehran against taking what they see as steps toward a nuclear weapon. Iran insists its program is peaceful and a national right; Israel says the world must declare a “red line” beyond which the facilities will no longer be tolerated. Their positions are untenably contradictory, and both countries appear to be preparing for the possibility of a conflict, which would presumably begin with an Israeli and/or U.S. airstrike on Iranian facilities. Meanwhile, Iran appears to be doing what it can to continue or even accelerate the program, and Israel what it can to slow it, though both have been careful to avoid open wa
