As Egypt Runs Out Of Dollars, Is It Next On The Devaluation Bandwagon?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2013 13:32 -0500

Late on Friday Venezuela shocked the world when instead of reporting an update on the ailing health of its leader, as many expected it would, it announced the official devaluation of its currency, the Bolivar by nearly 50% against the dollar yet still well below the unofficial black market exchange rate. By doing so, it may have set off a chain reaction among the secondary sovereigns in the world, those who have so far stayed away from the "big boys" currency wars, or those waged by the Big 6 "developed world" central banks, in an attempt to also "devalue their way to prosperity" and boost their economies by encouraging exports even as the local population sees a major drop in its purchasing power and living standards. So in the game, where the last player to crush their currency inevitably loses, the question is who is next. The answer may well be America's latest best north African friend, and custodian of the Suez Canal: Egypt.

As Reuters reports, in the ongoing underreported counterrevolution against the Muslim Brotherhood's US-backed regime, the local population is increasingly scrambling to preserve their local-denominated paper wealth by converting it into the same currency that Bernanke is hell bent to crush some by some $85 billion per month. Problem is - Egypt is out of dollars.

A run on Egypt's pound has left foreign currency in short supply and driven some dealers into the streets in search of people with U.S. dollars to sell, spawning a new black market.

The currency's decline was triggered by a political uprising that swept Hosni Mubarak from power in 2011 and it has officially lost 8 percent of its value since Dec. 30.

Black market rates are even weaker, a sign that although the central bank managed to stem the slide in official trade last week, Egyptians are nervous about holding on to pounds.

"There are no dollars. Everyone that walks in asks for dollars but supply is scarce," said one of the dealers.

The central bank took steps last week to manage the rate including narrowing the pound's trading band. It was last bid at 6.71 to the dollar on Sunday in interbank trade.

That is 13.4 percent weaker than its level on the eve of the uprising that led to Mubarak's downfall, pitching Egypt into two years of turmoil that has scared off tourists and investors.