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Possible scenarios for the Arab revolutions
Will not come out the fate of the Arab revolution in our appreciation for one of the following four assumptions:
The first scenario is inspired from the revolutions of the democratic transition that took place in several countries of the world such as Spain, Portugal and South Africa and the countries of Eastern Europe, and require that the democratic sense of the liberal hub in the change process, enters the Arab world, the era of democracy, albeit belatedly, in particular that the spectrum revolutionary differ in many of things but they all declare, though, for having, attached to democracy.
It follows that the democratic ideals that attracts all these spectra, instead of draining each other, and seek every spectrum of the radical restructuring of political thinking. Is most likely that currents of Arab politics have formulated their ideas and concepts according to the hypothesis of autism in power and considered each of them that the only alternative when they dismiss all the other options, while calling for democratic transition to become pluralism is the rule, and accept all nice to be part of each and find his place in government sometimes in opposition, sometimes, as required by the traditions of liberal democracy. This alternation in power is not just a political formality, but assumes a revolution in ideas and perceptions, because the transition of power from the stream to another in a very short time associated with the dates of election successive, what drives political currents to the adoption of realistic options and to select a group of participants into a contract of citizenship. It makes no sense to change with every election features of the society, but changing government policies, and thus shrink the margins of violence between warring political and face off in policy liabilities are not enemies, and turn the same authority to contract such as the position of Director of Foundation, instead of the message or leadership.
The second scenario is inspired by the revolutions ideology, begins with a period of democratic short passing in the reality of the repercussions of the collapse of the previous government, and then ends by the new authority and the strong take the place of its predecessor, and restore stability and national unity on the basis of a new ideological and continues at the same time devoting the same mechanisms is democracy in practice power, such as giving priority to the thought of one, and considering departures from the betrayal of the revolution, and devoted leadership is challenged stabbed in the revolution, and the mobilization of equipment, education and propaganda for the dissemination of a particular culture as the culture of the revolution, has been organizing periodic elections and allow the surface to freedom of expression, but control the mechanisms of deep community, including making operations the election mere repetition of the cushions and his dedication to freedom of expression and throwing dust in our eyes. Since the left-wing ideologies have been weakened but is almost extinct, it is possible to draw a picture of the Iranian revolution Arab revolutions also directed the Bolshevik Revolution or the Chinese American revolutions in the twentieth century.And you can soon be competing fundamentalisms fundamentalist Sunni Arab Shiite Iran, opening the region to sectarian clashes or on the contrary to the bidding between the Alosulitin and whichever is more revolutionary and representative of the ultimate truth.
The third scenario is the success of the old power to regain control of the situation with new faces, taking advantage of its accumulated experience in directing public affairs, and the inexperience of spectra revolutionary in the management of this matter, and confused the masses when you know how much the sacrifices required from them if they want to go in the revolution to its border maximum. Except that the stock Arab cultural inventory is a revolutionary, it is more likely to be replaced by obedience to the authority of another that is ready to review the concept of obedience from the ground up, what makes experienced authoritarian better able to control it and control the mechanisms of directed and find tracks and the tricks of the sacrifice of symbols of the previous situation of order to preserve the contents and interests. The techniques of manipulation that may baptizing them they transform the nature of revolutions of the Arab demand to end the suffering social Mshoukan to the issues of abstract theory of identity and issues of religious, sectarian and interpretations of law and disputes historical Salafi scholars and Sufis, thus preventing the line of separation from the forces of old monopoly on the homeland and the new forces demanding its share of the to the lines of fiction based on the position of each individual than what happened in the centuries to the old or disputes the old monopoly on power is in the societies of pre-modernity, including pulling the rug on the inspired revolutionary and draws enthusiastic public to the issues, to say the least it does not accept the discount in nature, may not sometimes accept the arguments that are raised in public because it involves a limited number of categories of specialists.
The fourth scenario is SOMALISATION the Arab world and democracy to transform chaos transgress the rules of each general meeting the name of freedom and impose what it deems is right and good, society breaks down and crumbles between the many and disparate forces capable of imposing itself on others by violence and money. Down with the old power, but not followed by another authority or are a substitute for new mechanisms in the management of public affairs, undermine national unity, already fragile, and it was backed tyranny more than they are based on real social harmony. And float on the surface identities of traditional society that disappeared from official discourse, but has not disappeared from the reality of life for the masses marginalized were recovered this public voice and presence, carrying with them their own ways of dividing the world into sects and tribes, and thrones and Regional news rather than as imposed by the official discourse of concepts have been alien to them a sense of and meaning.
