Race42012 Polling Averages and Line Chart – July 3, 2011
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination
| Poll | Average | FOX News | McClatchy-Marist | Morris | Rasmussen | NBC/WSJ | PPP (D) | Gallup |
| Date | 6/8 – 6/28 | 6/26 – 6/28 | 6/15 – 6/23 | 6/18 – 6/19 | 6/14 – 6/14 | 6/9 – 6/13 | 6/9 – 6/12 | 6/8 – 6/11 |
| Romney | 24.14 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 33 | 30 | 22 | 24 |
| Palin | 12.80 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 16 | ||
| Giuliani | 11.50 | 10 | 13 | |||||
| Perry | 9.75 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 8 | |||
| Bachmann | 9.43 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Cain | 9.00 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| Paul | 7.43 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Gingrich | 5.57 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
| Pawlenty | 5.14 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| Santorum | 3.50 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | |
| Huntsman | 1.57 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Johnson | 1.17 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | ||||
| McCotter | 0.50 | 0.5 | ||||||
| Roemer | 0.50 | 0.5 | ||||||
| Karger | 0.50 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||
| Moore | 0.50 | 0.5 |
Bachmann and Perry are the ones skyrocketing in the polls this week. In fact, their trajectories have been so similar that they almost exactly overlap in the line graph above, making it difficult to tell them apart. They’ve both comfortably surpassed Cain, Paul, and Gingrich (and where oh where will Gingrich’s collapse end? It’s only a matter of time, at this rate, before he hits 1% or less in a national poll). Michigan Representative Thad McCotter debuts in a FOX News poll at less than 1%, tied with Roemer, Karger, and Moore — not exactly the conservative savior “Second Coming” reception he was hoping for. What is it, exactly, that sets him apart as a candidate anyway, besides his disdain for Gucci brand footwear? And the door is rapidly closing on any potential Palin (whose spot in the field is quickly being taken over by Bachmann) or Giuliani (whose pro-war/neocon banner is being hoisted by Pawlenty, and whose social moderate niches are being staked out by Huntsman and Johnson) runs. It’s looking more and more like the last real late entrants who could truly shake things up would be Perry or Christie. Perry looks like he might very well get in; Christie seems to have budged little from his long-standing, adamant “No.”
