Friday, August 3, 2012

Olympics: 84 medals with 25 golds – Guardian writers predict GB's haul Four years ago in Beijing

Olympics: 84 medals with 25 golds – Guardian writers predict GB's haul

Sport by sport, event by event, our team assess who will be picking up the Olympic medals Team GB will claim in London
London 2012 Olympic gold medal
A London 2012 Olympic gold medal. How many will Team GB win and what will be their overall medal tally? Photograph: Julia Hoyle/PA
Four years ago in Beijing, Team GB won 47 medals, 19 of them golds. Now, with home advantage, the expectation is that these numbers will be exceeded – but by how much? UK Sport has set a minimum target of 48 medals – but our writers are looking rather higher …

Archery

Medal prediction UK Sport 0-1, Guardian 1
Women's team Alison Williamson, Naomi Folkard, Amy Oliver
The British women's archers just missed out on a medal in Beijing, finishing fourth. With Amy Oliver, ranked No1 in the world earlier this year, replacing Charlotte Burgess since then, the trio have built on that success and won silver for England at the 2010 Commonwealth Games and have an outside chance of sneaking on to the podium.

Athletics

Medal prediction UK Sport 5-8, Guardian 9 (1 gold)
Heptathlon Jessica Ennis – gold Men's 400m hurdles Dai GreeneMen's 5,000m or 10,000m Mo Farah Men's high jump Robbie Grabarz Women's pole vault Holly Bleasdale Women's 400m hurdlesPerri Shakes-Drayton Women's triple jump Yamilé Aldama Men's triple jump Phillips Idowu Men's 4x400m relay team
The head of UK athletics, Charles van Commenee, has said 15 of his athletes are in the medal zone but with the news of Goldie Sayers's injury and growing concerns over Phillips Idowu, there are questions over that figure. Given no one is certain what level of fitness Idowu is at, he cannot yet be discounted, but nine medals including one gold looks a fair estimate. Anna Kessel

Badminton

Medal prediction UK Sport 0-1, Guardian 1
Mixed doubles Chris Adcock/Imogen Bankier
Adcock and Bankier are the rising stars of British badminton having won world championship silver last year on home soil. They are ranked 10th in the world but have twice beaten the Chinese pair who defeated them to take world gold since the championships. They were chosen ahead of the veteran Athens silver medallist Nathan Robertson and his partner, Jenny Wallwork.

Basketball

Medal prediction UK Sport 0-1, Guardian 0
Making the quarter-finals would be a great achievement for either the British men's or women's teams. The men may boast one NBA star in the Chicago Bulls' Luol Deng but the team have not competed at an Olympics since the last time London hosted the Games in 1948, while the women have never before put a team forward.

Boxing

Medal prediction UK Sport 3-5, Guardian 6 (1 gold)
Super heavyweight Anthony Joshua – gold Light welterweight Tom Stalker Bantamweight Luke Campbell Middleweight Savannah Marshall Flyweight Nicole Adams Lightweight Natasha Jonas
Joshua, who won world silver last year, beating the former champion en route, is ranked fourth in the world and will be the British boxing story of the Games. All three women have a good chance of taking a medal in a field of only 36 – and they are in fine form and health. Kevin Mitchell

Canoeing

Medal prediction UK Sport 3-4; Guardian 6 medals (3 golds)
Canoe slalom: Men's canoe single C1 David Florence – gold Men's canoe double C2 David Florence/Richard Hounslow
Time for David Florence to prove he can realise his ambitions and take gold to add to the silver he won in Beijing. The 29-year-old should also make podium in C2 with Richard Hounslow as the pair have already won medals at world level
Canoe sprint: Men's kayak single 1,000m Tim Brabants – gold Men's kayak single 200m Ed McKeever – gold; Men's kayak double 200mJon Schofield/Liam Heath Women's kayak four 500m Jessica Walker, Rachel Cawthorn, Angela Hannah, Louisa Sawers
Brabants is the defending Olympic champion competing at his fourth Games and while he won the race-off to earn his GB place he has been battling to recover his form after only returning to sport from his position as an A&E doctor just over two years ago. McKeever is Team GB's banker in the super-fast sprint event, the "100m on water", having won the world championships in 2010 and winning all three World Cup events this summer. The men's kayak double and women's kayak four are both under the radar but both can snatch a medal.

Cycling

Medal prediction UK Sport 6-10, Guardian 13 medals (6 gold)
Men's road race Mark Cavendish – gold Men's time trial Bradley Wiggins – gold Women's team pursuit Danielle King, Laura Trott, Joanna Rowsell – gold Men's team pursuit Ed Clancy, Steven Burke, Peter Kennaugh, Geraint Thomas (Andrew Tennant) – gold Men's keirin Chris Hoy – gold Women's omnium Laura Trott – gold Women's time trial Emma Pooley Women's sprint Victoria Pendleton Men's sprint Jason Kenny Men's team sprint Chris Hoy/Kenny (Philip Hindes)Women's team sprint Jess Varnish/Pendleton Men's omnium Ed Clancy Women's BMX Shanaze Reade
Bradley Wiggins's triumphant Tour de France could provide the momentum given in Beijing by Nicole Cooke's road race victory at the start of the campaign; Wiggins and company go straight into action in Saturday's road race with the team all at their best form, while the track riders have been posting personal bests in training. Medals are guaranteed, the question is what colour? William Fotheringham

Diving

Medal prediction UK Sport 1-3, Guardian 2
Men's synchro 10m platform Tom Daley/Pete Waterfield Men's 10m platform Tom Daley
This prediction is made more in hope than expectation. But with the roar of the crowd swaying the judges, I'm going for bronze in synchronised and silver in individual 10m platform dives. But for Daley to beat China's Qiu Bo to gold in the individual might just be straying into the realms of fantasy. Simon Hattenstone

Equestrian

Medal prediction UK Sport 3-4, Guardian 5 (1 gold)
Eventing: Team William Fox-Pitt, Tina Cook, Zara Phillips, Nicola WilsonIndividual Cook or Fox-Pitt
Dressage: Team Laura Bechtolsheimer, Charlotte Dujardin and Carl Hester – gold Individual Dujardin
The British team is strongly fancied in three-day eventing (which, oddly, takes place over four days), but the Germans may be even stronger andNew Zealand should go well. Team GB should get a medal in the team event (hunch it will be bronze), with Tina Cook and William Fox-Pitt the best hopes for individual medals.
In showjumping, Nick Skelton has been widely tipped for a medal in the individual competition, but there are a score of riders in with a shout and the 54-year-old may narrowly miss out. In the team event, GB will do well to get into the top six, with GermanyFrance and the US most likely to fill the medal places.
The real banker for Team GB is dressage, where the UK has never previously won a medal of any hue. Laura Bechtolsheimer, Charlotte Dujardin and Carl Hester are strong favourites in the team event. All three have chances in the individual competition, but the 25-year-old Dujardin has timed her run perfectly and performed brilliantly at the Hartpury Festival of Dressage this month. After years of dressage domination by Germany and Holland, the Brits are oh-so-elegantly coming. Stephen Moss

Football

Medal prediction UK Sport makes no medal prediction as it does not fund football, Guardian 1
Women's event
Hope Powell has tournament expertise and experience with England, and so too does the core of the Team GB squad. Made a decent start in Cardiff and with home advantage could reach the final.

Fencing

Medal prediction UK Sport 0-1, Guardian 1
Men's individual foil Richard Kruse
Richard Kruse, who is competing at his third Games, represents Britain's best chance of a fencing medal. Ranked 15th in the world, he reached the quarter-finals at Athens 2004 and the last 16 in Beijing. However, a silver won at the 2011 World Cup offers promise for London.

Gymnastics

Medal prediction UK Sport 1-2, Guardian 4
Men's artistic gymnastics: Pommel horse Louis Smith All-roundDaniel Purvis
Women's artistic gymnastics uneven bars Beth TweddleTrampoline Kat Driscoll
Louis Smith has the most difficult routine in the pommel competition but can he pull it off for gold? He has never beaten Krisztian Berki, his great Hungarian rival, in major competition. Daniel Purvis is a hope for a medal in floor too, but he has come closest in the all-around with a fourth place in the world championships last year. Beth Tweddle's difficult bars routine could, if she completes it perfectly, threaten for the gold. But He Kexin ofChina and Viktoria Komova of Russia are formidable opponents. Arguably Britain's best hope of gymnastics gold comes in the trampoline, where Kat Driscoll was world No1 last year but she has suffered disappointments in major competitions in her individual event. Emma John

Handball

Medal prediction UK Sport 0, Guardian 0
Both the men's and women's British teams are rank outsiders in their first Olympics in the event and performing as competitively as they can will be their aim rather than any wild dreams of standing on the rostrum. The women did beat the African champions Angola earlier this year but neither team are expected to get out of their pool.

Hockey

Medal prediction UK Sport 1-2, Guardian 2
Both the men's and women's teams have realistic chances of reaching the podium. Britain's men boast their best team since the Olympic champion side of 1988, while the women have beaten the world champions, Argentina, twice in 2012. Gold is probably too far a step for either, although the women could reach the final.

Judo

Medal prediction UK Sport 0-1, Guardian 0
Team GB have underachieved when going into recent Games with hopes high. Britain have won just one silver since 2000 and only five medals in total over the past six Games. Even the competitors are playing down their chances this time – "Just one or two medals is a tough target to get," says Sophie Cox, who competes at 52kg. Jamie Jackson

Modern pentathlon

Medal prediction UK Sport 1-2, Guardian 2
Men Nick Woodbridge Women Mhairi Spence.
With Britain able to select only two athletes to compete at London 2012, competition, particularly in the women's event, was fierce. Mhairi Spence earned her spot when she won the world final in Rome in May and instantly became a good medal prospect in an unpredictable event that Britain have figured in strongly in recent Games. Russia dominate the men's event but Nick Woodbridge is ranked fifth in the world and will be hoping to do a lot better than his 25th place in Beijing.

Rowing

Medal predictions UK Sport 6, Guardian 8 (4 gold)
Women's double sculls Katherine Grainger/Anna Watkins – goldWomen's pair Helen Glover/Heather Stanning – gold Men's four Alex Gregory, Tom James, Pete Reed, Andrew Triggs Hodge – goldLightweight men's four Chris Bartley, Peter Chambers, Richard Chambers, Rob Williams – gold Lightweight men's double scullsMark Hunter/Zac Purchase Men's single sculls Alan CampbellWomen's eight, Men's eight
The women's double sculls is possibly the most nailed-on gold Team GB have, with Katherine Grainger and Anna Watkins dominant in their event. Helen Glover and Heather Stanning need to hold off their New Zealandrivals while the men's four, also favourites for gold, are being pushed hard by the Australian crew. However, Britain's rowing squad has the strength in depth to better the six-medal haul from Beijing. Robert Kitson

Sailing

Medal prediction UK Sport 3-5, Guardian 6 (3 gold)
Finn Ben Ainslie – gold 470 Women Hannah Mills and Saskia Clark – gold Star Iain Percy and Andrew Simpson – gold Laser Paul GoodisonMen's windsurfing Nick Dempsey Women's match racing Lucy Macgregor, Annie Lush, Kate Macgregor
Stephen Park, the team's manager, believes that for the first time the team has "realistic" chances of winning medals in all 10 sailing events. He works on the basis that half those opportunities could be converted. The target is for four medals. Other teams, notably the Australians, are looking stronger than they were at the Beijing Games. But the British sailing team have a nice mix of youth and experience and could exceed Park's expectations. Steven Morris

Shooting

Medal prediction UK Sport 0-1, Guardian 1 (gold)
Men's double trap Peter Wilson – gold
Peter Wilson is the world No1 in the double trap and took first place with a new world record at the Tucson World Cup 2012. Having also taken the World Cup and European championships titles in 2011, he is Britishshooting's best chance of a medal.

Swimming

Medal prediction UK Sport 5-7, Guardian 8 (2 gold)
800m freestyle Rebecca Adlington – gold Open water 10k Keri-Anne Payne – gold 400m freestyle Rebecca Adlington 200m butterfly Ellen Gandy 50m freestyle Fran Halsall 100m freestyle Fran Halsall 400m individual medley Hannah Miley Women's 4x200m freestyle relay
Rebecca Adlington is ranked No1 in the world over 800m and No2 over 400m, but she says herself: "It is totally different going into a Games – whoever goes in first on paper doesn't normally come out the winner." She faces fierce competition over the shorter distance.
Throw in the 4x100m freestyle and medley relays and Fran Halsall will be competing in five different events in London. On paper, she stands an excellent chance of winning medals in all three of her individual events. She is ranked No2 in the 50m freestyle, No3 in the 100m freestyle, and No5 in the 100m butterfly. But she has always had problems producing her best at major championships. Keri-Anne Payne has won both the 2009 and 2011 world championships and while open water swimming is a wild, unpredictable event, Payne is, rightly, the heavy favourite to win.
At the 2011 world championships Miley won silver in the 400m, a distant second to the USA's Elizabeth Beisel, and 0.01sec ahead of Australia's triple Olympic champion Stephanie Rice. Andy Bull

Synchronised swimming