Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Obama and Romney Neck in Neck in OH Poll… WITH D+10 SAMPLE!


Obama and Romney Neck in Neck in OH Poll… WITH D+10 SAMPLE!

September, 24, 2012 — nicedeb
This information came at the very end of the Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Ohio 2012 Presidential Survey, but I’m going to go ahead and post it right up front:
Survey of  594 likely voters was conducted September 21-22, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Party ID: 41.4% Democrat; 31.1% Republican; 27.5% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 2, 2012are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 27, 2012 are in parentheses.
Huh!
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 45.2% {47.27%} [43.7%] (45.3%)
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44.3% {43.19%} [46.8%] (44.4%)
  • Other/Unsure 10.4% {9.54%} [9.5%] (10.3%)
A 2010 Ohio Exit Poll  showed R+1:
DEMOCRAT   36%            REPUBLICAN   37% 
A 2012 Gallup Party ID poll Ohio showed    D+1
DEMOCRAT   42%            REPUBLICAN   41%
I’d say party ID is basically even in Ohio – so why the +10 Dem skew? Does this mean R/R is skunking O/B?
Oh…and check out what RS McCain, who is in Ohio covering the race, reported Monday morning:
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus just held an impromptu press gaggle and said, “We’re going to outspend the DNC 10-to-1 for the next six weeks.” Asked about polls showing Romney-Ryan trailing in Ohio, Priebus said “we’re within a field goal and we’re going to crush [the Democrats] on the ground.”
That’s right, he said it: CRUSH. You know, I don’t mind telling you – that gave me a little tingle up my leg when I read it.
David Limbaugh gives 10 reasons  why he’s optimistic Romney will crush Obama in November.
Here’s 6,7,and 8:
6) The avalanche of negativity spewing from the liberal media can be discouraging to conservatives, but the liberal media have steadily lost clout over the past 20 years, and the alternative conservative media have never been more robust. Not only are the liberal media less powerful but also conservative talk show hosts, bloggers, tweeters, columnists and Fox News react with lightning speed to counter every single lie they promulgate.
7) The polls can be discouraging, too, but we’ve seen this in previous elections. Some pollsters showing Obama significantly ahead have a dubious history of distortion and have used their polls to manipulate instead of report public opinion. Most polls showing Obama ahead are either oversampling Democrats (using 2008 as a model instead of more recent elections) or understating Romney’s lead among independents. The Weekly Standard reports that through 2004, every incumbent whose Gallup approval rating was less than 50 percent at this point — as is Obama’s — lost. In Ohio, thousands more Republicans have ordered absentee ballots than Democrats. Also, I’m skeptical that all poll respondents are being completely candid in their positive responses about Obama for fear of being accused of racism or of being out of step with the manufactured media narrative that Obama is a likable person.
8) Obama is having some difficulty with his base, which is why his campaign is increasingly desperate and shrill. Some blacks are so angry over his liberal social views they may stay home. Some Jews are awakening to Obama’s mistreatment of Israel. If Obama were so confident, he wouldn’t be so flagrantly neglecting his official duties to feverishly campaign.
Or appear on Entertainment Tonight, Letterman, Leno, The View, etc…I’m sure I’m missing some. He’s got his hardcore left-wing base motivated,  so now he’s trying to shore up the stupid vote. He’s deploying  his notorious *ahem* “charm offensive” so people who don’t normally vote will  get registered and pull the lever for “President Eye Candy,” in November.
That’s exactly why it’s more important to him to go on The View and parlay with Whoopie, Baba and  Behar, than meet with world leaders at the UN.
Talk about desperate.
See Also:
For your edification: PJ Media: Skewed and Unskewed Polls
And, yep, I did miss a couple: Doug Ross: EXCLUSIVE FIRST LOOK: President Obama’s September Scrapbook
“Evidence of a strong trend for Romney going on out there.”
Which is a counter to the legacy media narrative that Obama is running away with the race. And Morris also tackles this UnskewedPolls.com business, which is a great site pointing out that if you recalibrate the electorate to the actual party ID of the voters Romney is winning in all the polls the media says he’s losing in. Because there simply is no way the 2012 electorate will look like the 2008 electorate did – much less the even more Democrat-skewed profile the multiple polls out there show.
UPDATE:
A new poll from ABC/WaPo has Obama up 8 points -  leading Romney 52% to 44%. Oh dear!
What’s the party ID sample look like, you ask?
Democrat
35
Republican
26
Independent
35
No pref./Other
3
Oh…. +9 Democrat, and I didn’t see any other cross tabs to see if they oversampled women – another one of their tricks.
Garbage in and garbage out as someone said in the comments.
UPDATE II:
Oh please…
Hat tip: Charles B. for the polling data.
Posted in Awesome, Dems, Disaster, Dumb!, Obamessiah, Repubs. 14 Comments »

14 Responses to “Obama and Romney Neck in Neck in OH Poll… WITH D+10 SAMPLE!”

  1. Neck And Neck In Ohio? « Truth Before Dishonor Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 3:40 am
    [...] garbage bin. That sort of outcome will never happen in Ohio. So, there’s this new poll that Nice Deb found, showing a neck-and-neck race with Obama ahead 45.2 to 44.3 (and always remember when an [...]
  3. Mike Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 6:42 am
    To the point around candor on polling calls – I was recently called by an Obama polster. When I stated that I was voting for Romney, the pollster responded with “Shame on you”. Really? I was so flabergasted that I regretably didn’t respond cogetnly in real time. Definitely a factor in overstatement of Obama support IMO.
  4. rosignol Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 7:22 am
    Does this mean R/R is skunking O/B?
    Don’t get cocky.
  5. Stan Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 9:05 am
    Trouble is going on the View and on Pimp With a Limp will help him
    .Romney needs to take that seriously.
  6. Daly Score Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 9:22 am
    I don’t need “EYE CANDY” I need leadership and someone to take the helm and steer this ship in the right direction..Romney/Ryan 2012
  7. Bill Mitchell Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 9:32 am
    The ONLY poll I have seen that had a positive Republican sample was the Akin MO poll when PPP was trying to convince him to stay in the race. That poll was miraculously +9 Republican to show the race close. These pollsters have sold their souls to the devil.
  8. Obama Campaign Adviser Admits: “Campaigning Trumped Meetings with World Leaders” « Nice DebSays:
    September, 25, 2012 at 10:41 am
    [...] commenter, here, fretted: Trouble is going on the View and on Pimp With a Limp will help him. Romney needs to take [...]
  9. Ralph GizzipR Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
    We’re so tired of robo-calling polls we’ve just ID’d ourselves as voting for the Bamster. Are we really going to vote for Obama? Not a snowball’s chance in Hell. But it’s fun messing with the pollsters minds.
  10. nicedeb Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 11:18 am
    How is that messing with the pollsters’ minds? The whole purpose of skewed polls is to mess with conservatives’ minds – suppress voter enthusiasm by making them feel like its a lost cause. I answered three polls the other day and was happy to give them my true opinion. To do otherwise is playing right into their hands.
  11. jukin Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 12:35 pm
    Nicedeb, I used to think that but no believe it is to keep the bottom from falling out of the democrat party support. Dictators fall when people think other people feel about the dictator as they do. Obama is real close to that point where his support falls down to just the hardcore left and black voting blocks.
  12. MarkJ Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 1:28 pm
    jukin,
    This is what we call a “preference cascade”. Probably the most famous visual example of this is Nicolae Ceausescu’s last televised speech in ’89. You can find it easily on YouTube.
  13. Geo Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 1:58 pm
    According to Dick Morris [who I don't particularly care for] the pollsters are using a outdated polling method from the ’08 election. Where they are oversampling [intentionally] the dim voter results. I think most pollsters lean like the msm in this country . . . left. I also believe that they try to influence the election results by reporting skewed polls, but when it comes down to the wire, they try to report it correctly in order to save face.
    They totally missed the correct results in the ’10 election cycle [though Rassmussen was the closest]. I think there was then [and is now] a under current and furor that they are not picking up in their results. I think the majority of the electorate is just as pissed and can’t wait to get to the polls and vote against this guy. The dims denied the influence of the Tea Party then [before the election] and seem to think that they have given up the fight. I don’t believe it. The Tea Party and the Republicans are better organized now, as evidenced by the Scott Walker recall.
    The magic is gone with this guy. There are no crowds or money like there was before. Half of the world is on fire just waiting for just one more piece to drop. Every constituency this guy carried last time with huge numbers are diminished this time around. His economic advisers put their best academic theories to work and failed, they all have returned to to their universities to start filling the next generation of minds with mush. Jews and Black Christians are furious for their own reasons. There is a hush over most College campuses, unlike before in ’08. Students have moved from the dorms back into mom and pop’s basements and can’t find work. Unemployment for minorities is way higher than the national average. Millions have left the workforce because they can’t find any work. The modern day “bread line of the thirties” now has a Food Stamp card and can’t be seen.
    I still believe that Romney has this one in the bag. However, the upcoming debates are going to be critical. This would be a good time to put the “gloves” on Mitt and inflict some damage to this clown. Don’t go McCain on us, you just may blow this election after all.
  14. Brian Cates (@drawandstrike) Says:
    September, 25, 2012 at 3:47 pm
    Linked to you in the update at my blog on the MSM’s polling shehanigans, Deb! :D
    Now updated to include the hilarious WaPo poll on Ohio with an absurd +9 Dem skew giving Obama a 8 pt lead:
    http://drawandstrike.blogspot.com/2012/09/why-you-wont-see-accurate-polls-from.html
Posted by Robby Ball at 6:07 PM