IBD/TIPP: Obama Sinks To A 2-Point Lead Over Mitt Romney

Walter Hickey | 16 minutes ago | 381 | 2

Courtesy of CNN

The IBD/TIPP daily tracking poll — which takes a six-day rolling average — finds that President Barack Obama's advantage has dipped to only 2 points over Republican Mitt Romney. The poll gives Obama a 46.7 percent to 44.7 percent over Romney, a point down from yesterday's 3-point advantage. Obama dropped 0.6 points from yesterday, while Romney gained around half a point in the polls. Yesterday, Obama sat at 47.3 percent, up 0.8 percent from the day before, while Mitt Romney was at 44.3 percent, giving the president a full 3-point advantage. In other tracking poll news, Obama trails Romney by 3 points in both the Gallup and Rasmussen surveys.

Obama's lead over Romney shrank to 46.7%-44.7%, or 2 points. Romney's gains appear to be mostly among women, who supported Obama a bit less, and Romney a bit more, closing the gap for Romney among all women to 10 points from 12 points a day earlier. Among white women only, Romney maintains a comfortable 5-point lead. Romney's support among self-described conservatives has also ramped up in recent days, rising from 71% two days ago to 74% currently. He has also basically closed the enthusiasm gap with Obama, with those who say they're "strongly" in support of Romney at 74%, and those who say they strongly support Obama at 75% -- a statistical tie.

Day 17. October 25, 2012

Category	Obama	Romney	Not sure	Refused
Overall	47%	45%	6%	3%
Region
Northeast	49%	43%	5%	3%
Midwest	51%	43%	4%	2%
South	42%	49%	5%	4%
West	48%	41%	9%	2%
Age
18-44	52%	39%	7%	2%
45-64	44%	49%	5%	2%
65+	42%	48%	5%	5%
Gender
Male	43%	50%	5%	2%
Female	50%	40%	7%	3%
Race
White	38%	53%	6%	2%
Black/Hispanic	82%	11%	3%	3%
Income
Under 30K	55%	35%	8%	3%
30K-50K	54%	37%	5%	3%
50-75K	40%	55%	5%	0%
75K+	45%	47%	5%	2%
Party
Democrats	87%	7%	4%	2%
Republicans	7%	88%	3%	2%
Ind./Other	38%	48%	11%	4%
Investor Class
Yes	46%	47%	5%	3%
No	52%	39%	7%	2%
Area Type
Urban	64%	28%	5%	4%
Suburban	49%	43%	6%	2%
Rural	32%	60%	6%	2%
White
White men	33%	59%	6%	2%
White women	43%	48%	6%	3%
Black/Hispanic
Black*	92%	3%	1%	4%
Hispanic*	61%	29%	8%	2%
Women
Single women	62%	25%	8%	5%
Married women	41%	51%	5%	2%
Education
High School	44%	43%	11%	1%
Some College	47%	46%	4%	3%
College Degree or more	48%	44%	5%	3%
Ideology
Conservative	19%	74%	5%	2%
Moderate	59%	30%	8%	3%
Liberal	88%	5%	5%	2%
Household Description
Upper/Upper Middle	47%	46%	5%	1%
Middle	44%	48%	5%	3%
Working	53%	38%	8%	2%
Lower*	60%	32%	7%	1%
Religion
Protestant	38%	54%	6%	2%
Catholic	42%	49%	8%	1%
Other Christian	47%	44%	5%	4%
Jewish*	63%	32%	0%	5%
Other*	47%	44%	3%	6%
None	66%	26%	6%	2%
Union Household
Yes	55%	36%	7%	2%
No	46%	46%	5%	3%
2008 Vote
Obama	85%	7%	6%	2%
McCain	5%	92%	2%	1%

*Small sample size. Interpret with caution.

Polling period: 10/19 - 10/24 Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology, live interviewers call both landline and cell phone Random Digit Dial (RDD) samples. Our methodology statement is available here

Sample size: 948 likely voters (identified from 1091 registered voters with party affiliation of 38% Dem, 31% GOP, 32% Ind.)

Margin of Error: +/- 3.3 percentage points

Next release: 2:00 p.m. EST, October 26, 2012