ROMNEY 53%, OBAMA 45% -- QSN DTP 10/9 | QSN Poll: Romney49.8%, Obama 45.1% | QSN Poll Swing States RThttp://UnSkewedPolls.com @MittRomney
Mitt Romney surges ahead in new Pew poll
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney delivers a foreign policy speech at the Virginia Military Institute on October 8, 2012 in Lexington, Virginia.
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Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
After trailing in their last survey, Mitt Romney has surged forward to a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama in the latest Pew poll of the presidential racereleased today. The Pew poll released on September 19 of this year showed Obama leading by a 51 percent to 43 percent lead over Romney. That survey over-sampled Democrats by about 6.5 percent while the latest Pew poll released today samples a nearly equal number of Democrats and Republicans among registered voters.
This new Pew poll released today surveyed 1112 likely voters between October 4-7 and has a margin of error of 3.4 percent. Among 1201 registered voters polled, the sample includes 403 Republicans, 396 Democrats and 364 independent voters. This is about 33 percent Democrats and Republicans and about 30 percent independents. The September 19 Pew poll had surveyed 717 Republicans, 869 Democrats and 757 independent voters, or by percentages, 30.6 percent Republicans, 37.1 percent Democrats and 32.3 percent independents.
The new Pew poll reveals that Romney leads 51 percent to 43 percent among all men and among all women the candidates are tied at 47 percent. This latter is an improvement from the September Pew poll where Obama lead 56 percent to 38 percent among all women. Romney leads among whites in the new poll 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama had a huge 92 percent to three percent margin among black voters.
Middle class income earners between $30,000 and $74,999 were supporting Obama by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin in the previous Pew poll but switched to Romney's side by a 51 percent to 44 percent edge in the new Pew poll.
Both parties were shown to be strongly loyal to their own candidate in the Pew poll, with 91 percent of Republicans supporting Romney and 94 percent of Democrats supporting President Obama. The independent voters, however, support Romney by a narrow 46 percent to 42 percent edge in the poll.
Mitt Romney leads in three of the four regions of the country in the new Pew poll. While only the Northeast supports Obama by a slim 47 percent to 46 percent margin, Midwest supports Romney 58 percent to 37 percent while the South is heavily 68 percent to 27 percent in favor of Romney and the West supports the GOP nominee by a 52 percent to 45 percent margin.
Mitt Romney's favorability has increased from 45 percent to 50 percent form the last Pew poll to the new one, and President Obama's favorability had declined from 55 percent to 49 percent.
All the key indicators in this new Pew poll, along with the over all result, point to a strong Romney surge ahead in the presidential race after the first debate between the former Massachusetts governor and the president. After inclusion of this poll, the Real Clear Politics average of polls lead for President Obama has fallen to just 0.5 percent.
Many of the other recent polls have been found to be skewed by over-sampling Democrats to skew the results in favor of Barack Obama. Last month, the previous CNN/ORC poll wassimilarly skewed. In August on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major pollsare skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.
So many of these skewed polls have been unskewed here in this column they are now averaged, in unskewed form, in the new UnskewedPolls.com UnSkewed Average of Polls that today shows Romney leading by 2.0 percent.
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