Wednesday, November 7, 2012

A new democratically elected government in #Libya, is it fearsome enough to govern?


: Finally an elected Libyan cabinet, but is it fearsome enough to govern? - Alja...  

Finally an elected Libyan cabinet, but is it fearsome enough to govern?
A new democratically elected government in Libya still has much work to do before it's in the clear.
Last Modified: 07 Nov 2012 14:38

Zidan has excellent credentials and appears to be supported by Libya's two most powerful parliamentary blocs [EPA]
Libya's first elected cabinet will be finally sworn in Thursday, on November 8. They will replace the interim non-elected one which should have been replaced nearly two months ago and has been governing as a lame-duck since July.
Delays in getting to this point have been numerous: First, a vote of no-confidence torpedoed Libya's first post-election Prime Minister Mustafa Abushagur's attempt to form a cabinet; next, the selection of new Prime Minister Ali Zidan took weeks; and was followed by a wait for his ministerial list and lastly, a wait for the end of Eid al-Adha to approve the list.
After this wearying wait, the prevailing wisdom is that the new cabinet will combine technocratic competence with the full legitimacy of being selected by an electoral body, and Libya's most intractable problems can finally be tackled head on.
Yet, like driving towards a mirage in the desert, the closer we have approached this mythical image of a democratically sanctioned Libyan government, which is simultaneously bureaucratically competent and universally recognised as legitimate, the further away the mirage has receded into the horizon. 
Until now, none of the leaders of post-Gaddafi Libya (elected or unelected, military or civilian) have shown the ability to put aside their factional or personal interests and take the bold steps the country needs. Will Ali Zidan's government be able to provide that? The jury is still out.
Security situation 
These tragic delays have played out amidst an unpredictable security situation. Strikingly, the murder of US Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens, on September 11, occurred just one day before the selection of Mustafa Abushagur as Prime Minister.
 Inside Story - Libya united?
The siege of Bani Walid to root out anti-revolutionary forces was underway when militants from Zawiyya breached the assembly hall of Libya's General National Congress (GNC) during the middle of the debate on the Abushagur cabinet on October 4. And as Marx wrote, "[History repeats itself]... The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce".
It should come as no surprise, therefore, that the GNC hall was stormed again on October 31 during voting in favour of Prime Minister Ali Zidan's government, as dozens of armed militiamen (thuwar) from Misrata, Tripoli and elsewhere occupied the hall after the vote in protest of six of the cabinet choices.
The next day, around 100 thuwar occupied the hall and brought vehicles mounted with anti-aircraft guns outside the building. This is yet another ill precedent.
It is imperative that Ali Zidan and the new government did not bow to armed pressure in making replacements to their government or in any other decision. Doing so would immediately eviscerate its ability to lead. Although, it is no secret that the central authorities are weak in post-Gaddafi Libya, they must earn the respect of the Libyan people while teaching the militias to fear them.
Zidan has wisely pledged to make security his top priority, but he must follow through with the decisive actions needed to build functional security institutions, enact a meaningful reconciliation process and jump start infrastructural spending.
Zidan has excellent credentials and appears to be supported by Libya's two most powerful parliamentary blocs. But he will need to show more resolve if he wishes to strike fear into Libya's nearly 200 militias. Possibly, he needs to read some Machiavelli.
In a chaotic environment where the central authorities are struggling to control a portion of the national territory, it is far better to be feared than loved. All the religious credentials and goodwill in the world will not make Libyans follow governmental edicts that oppose their interests. But power, force, some carrots, some sticks and a pinch of cunning could go a long way.