Romney's confidence grows on the campaign trail as Obama loses ground in early voting

Romney held back his criticism of Obama in deference to the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy
Both candidates return to the campaign trail on Thursday

PUBLISHED: 20:04 EST, 31 October 2012 | UPDATED: 20:11 EST, 31 October 2012

Barack Obama is slipping in early voting in key areas of crucial swing states, bolstering the Romney campaign’s claim that greater Republican enthusiasm will sweep their man to victory next Tuesday.

But Romney held back his criticism of Obama on the campaign trail in Florida in deference to the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy while the president toured devastated areas of New Jersey.

Democrats traditionally hold a marked advantage over Republicans in early voting. The Obama campaign has made early voting a centrepiece of its strategy with celebrities such as Katy Perry pleading with Nevadans to cast their ballots before election day and President Barack Obama being filmed voting early in Chicago.

The election campaign continues: An excited crowd snaps away as Romney gives a thumbs up during his arrival

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign rally at Tampa International Airport in Tampa, Florida today

Romney gestures to the crowd in his animated speech

With less than one week to go until election day, Romney smiles for the cameras

Romney shakes hands with supporters during the campaign stop in Florida

The former Massachusetts Gov. reaches out to greet supporters during a campaign stop at the Bank United Center, at The University of Miami, in Coral Gables

Romney arrives at a campaign stop at the Bank United Center in Miami to a crowd of cheers

Romney is back to campaigning before the general election on November 6

Romney is accompanied by Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla and he makes 'The U' hand sign during the campaign event in Miami

Romney picks up a baby from the audience as he campaigns at The University of Miami, in Coral Gables

Mitt Romney talks with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as they fly on his campaign plane to Miami

Romney walks to his campaign plane with U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, 2nd left, U.S. Representative Connie Mack, 2nd right and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, right

In terms of party registration, Democrats hold a narrow overall lead of 43 to 41 per cent but are clearly not going to match their 46 to 37 per cent advantage of 2008.

Although Obama appeared to make big strides on the first two days of eight-day period for in-person early voting, his pace slowed on Monday and Tuesday. Democrats netted 73,000 vote from the first two days, but gained 28,000 votes on Monday and just 16,000 votes on Tuesday.

In the meantime, Republicans lead among absentee ballots by 70,000 votes. Democrats won the combined early vote by more than 360,000 in 2008 and currently lead by just 49,000.

More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Colorado, suggesting that the swing state, where Obama campaigns on Thursday, could be slipping from the President’s grasp.

In North Carolina, which Obama won by just 14,000 votes in 2008, Romney has cut the Democratic early voting advantage by 100,000. Obama has not visited the state since September and Democrats have privately conceded that he is unlikely to win it.

In Nevada, Obama is also well behind his 2008 support in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, where he will also campaign tomorrow.

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‘We're wildly over-performing in Republican McCain counties and Obama's significantly underperforming in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina compared to 2008,’ a senior Romney strategist told MailOnline.

‘You go county by county and we are very happy where we are. We have leads among election day voters and independents. The Obama campaign is saying it's a 2008 model. But it's not. Obama needs to win independents.’

On a conference call with reporters, Rich Beeson, Romney’s political director, said: ‘In Florida right now about 2.2 million votes have been cast in early and absentee.

Right now as of today only 39,645 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. When you look at the independent break in each state, they are behind where they need to be going into election day next week.

‘We will win election day by double digits in Florida so they clearly are in a bad place going into day. They have three more days of early vote but they also have four so far where they have not made up any ground.’

In Ohio, in counties that Senator John McCain won in 2008 Republicans are 11 per up from where they were in 2008. In 35 McCain counties, turnout is 100 per cent up but this is only the case in 10 Obama counties.

Donning more casual attire, Obama steps down off his plane as he greets New Jersey Gov Chris Christie

A different side to the campaign: U.S. President Barack Obama is greeted by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie after he arrives at Atlantic City International Airport in New Jersey before surveying Hurricane Sandy damage today

Support: President Obama holds North Point Marina owner Donna Vanzant close as he tours damage done by Superstorm Sandy in Brigantine, New Jersey. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (left) stands with them

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Reassurance: President Barack Obama (left) hugs marine owner Donna Vanzant (right) during a tour of Brigantine, New Jersey, which was badly affected by Sandy

President Barack Obama and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administrator Craig Fugate walk from the White House to Marine One today

President Barack Obama, left, embraces Donna Vanzant, right

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks in a neighborhood after he tours damage done by Hurricane Sandy in Brigantine, New Jersey today

President Barack Obama, left, embraces a victim of the storm and right, speaks in a neighborhood after he tours damage done by Hurricane Sandy in Brigantine, New Jersey today

The Romney campaign is increasingly confident it will win in Iowa, which Obama won in 2008 and where his caucuses victory over Hillary Clinton launched him on the way to the White House.

‘Iowa is a state where there's a very clear line of demarcation,’ Beeson said. ‘Democrats tend to vote absentee and Republicans vote on election day. If the Democrats go into election day with less than a 130,000 lead on partisan registration and independents break, then we will win Iowa.’

Campaigning in Tampa Bay, Florida, Romney avoided his usual ferocious attacks on Obama and instead concentrated on his own five-point plan for growing the economy.

‘You should know I could not be in this race if I were not an optimist,’ he said. ‘I believe in the future of this country I know we have huge challenges, but I’m not frightened by them, I’m invigorated by the challenge. We’re going to take on these challenges we’re going to overcome them!’

Romney took care to call for donations to the Red Cross. Earlier, he had donated an undisclosed amount himself, according to his aides.

‘If you have an extra dollar or two, send them along and keep the people who are in harms – who have been in harm’s way, who’ve been damaged either personally or through their property, keep them in your thoughts and prayers’ he said.

‘We love all of our fellow citizens. We come together in times like this and we want to make sure that they have a speedy and quick recovery from their financial and in many cases, personal loss.

But Romney did indirectly criticise Obama for his handling of the economy. ‘My view is pretty straight forward and that is I believe that this is time for America to take a different course, that this should be a turning point for our country, and I say that because I look at where we are and with 23 million Americans – you think about that,’ he said.

‘These are real people. These are folks trying to put food on the table. 23 million people struggling to find a good job. This is something that requires in my view a different path than we’ve been on

.’

Obama will return to the campaign trail on Thursday with events in Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado while Romney will campaign in Virginia.

Mitt Romney sits with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, left, Rep. Connie Mack, right, and Sen. Marco Rubio, second from right, as they fly on his campaign plane to Miami, Florida

The younger brother of former US President George W Bush and son of George Bush, Jeb joined Mitt Romney on the campaign trail today

Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Rep. Connie Mack and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio pose for a photo on the tarmac after a campaign rally at Tampa International Airport with less than a week to go until the election