11:42 AM - 30 Dec 12 · Details
US ANALYST GIVES ASSAD WEEKS, AT MOST A FEW MONTHS, BEFORE REGIME COLLAPSE – 1,000 ASSAD TROOPS KILLED A MONTH:
TIMELINE – 30th DECEMBER 2012 15.15 GMT:
Jesffrey White, an analyst for the Washington Institute, a respected US academic centre, gives the Assad regime just weeks to survive, at best a few months and estimates that its troops are being killed at a rate of 1,000 a month.
FSA Fighters in Idlib Rush to Battle
White also estimates that the Syrian Army is suffering wounded casualties at the rate of 4 to 5,000 a month, meaning that over the last 5 to 6 months it has had 25,000 troops removed from areas of combat and with increased Opposition successes, this attrition rate is accelerating and is unsustainable.
The analyst estimates that Opposition fighters killed are approximately 850 a month but that they seem particularly skilled at quickly replacing those lost and that they have the power of success and momentum on their side, whereas the Government side are overwhelmed with low morale and no truly successful operations since last July.
Assad’s Government is also under extreme pressure, defending installations in 12 out of the 14 provinces and therefore unable to easily move reinforcements from one area to another. You can watch and hear more of this very clear and detailed analysis on video, “Is the End Near in Damascus?” ( Jeffrey Whites’s analysis starts around 04.11), HERE:
FSA TAKE CONTROL OF ANOTHER ARMY BASE IN IDLIB PROVINCE AS CAMPAIGN TO NEUTRALISE ASSAD AIR POWER STEPS UP A GEAR:
Confirming the analysis, particularly the increased rate of successes by the Opposition over the last month or so, it has been confirmed this morning that their fighters yesterday, Saturday, took control of the Hamidiyeh army base near Ma’arrat al-Numan in Idlib province.
Along with Wadi Daif, Hamidiyeh was the only other Assad outpost still remaining in Idlib province and its fall leaves its companion base just a few kilometres away, extremely vulnerable.
FSA Fighter Near Bombed Ambulance in Aleppo
The Free Syrian Army (FSA) announced a campaign a few days ago to free Idlib of all Assad forces and this is now very near completion.
The Wadi Daif garrison has been surrounded for weeks but has managed to continue shelling the nearby Opposition held town of Ma’arrat al-Numan and other FSA fighter positions.
The fall of the garrison will consolidate the FSA’s hold on the strategic Damascus to Aleppo highway, neither allowing Government reinforcements or supplies in or Assad’s troops to escape.
In Aleppo itself, the battle is going in much the same direction. For the first time, according to a report from Egypt, Syrian Airlines cancelled a flight from Cairo to Aleppo, due to fighting near the city’s international airport.
