There is an Arab consensus that #Syria regime is no longer responsive, says Muasherlnkd.in/6ehJys
AMMAN - As Arab and Turkish foreign ministers gathered in Rabat on Wednesday to discuss the Syrian crisis, the meeting posed diplomatic crossroads for Jordan, according to analysts.
Amman is weighing a host of domestic concerns and international commitments as it stakes out its official position on Syria, with the full knowledge that any efforts to ratchet up pressure on its northern neighbour will be felt within Jordan’s borders and beyond.
‘Point of no return’
For months Jordan has kept a “low profile”, conservative approach to the brewing crisis across its borders, attempting to maintain an open dialogue with Damascus while discouraging ongoing violence against civilians, according to observers.
The continued military crackdown combined with the failure of the Assad regime to abide by the Arab League initiative has forced Arab states, including Jordan, to take a tougher stance on Syria, says Marwan Muasher, former foreign minister and current vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Studies.
“There is an Arab consensus that the regime is no longer responsive and the continuing targeting of its own population is unacceptable,” Muasher said.
“Jordan has long taken a pragmatic approach, but Syria stopped listening,” said Maher Abu Teir, Ad Dustour columnist and political observer.
The stall in diplomatic progress culminated in His Majesty King Abdullah’s interview with the BBC on Monday, in which the Monarch expressed what observers described as “disappointment” in the Syrian regime’s failure to implement political reforms and bring an end to the violence.
“His Majesty was clear that despite countless efforts to reach out, the Syrian side has been less than receptive,” said Abdullah Ensour, former foreign minister and Salt MP.
The King’s comments reiterated Jordan’s official position that reform should come from within the Syrian regime, paving the way for a free and democratic Syria, according to Taher Odwan, former media affairs minister and government spokesman.
“With these comments, the King is sending the message that this is the last chance for the Syrian regime and that Arab leaders should be taken seriously,” Odwan noted.
Developments over the last week represent a departure from the “calm” relations Amman and Damascus have enjoyed over the past decade, the analysts said.
The open talk of the need for Assad to step down is a signal that Jordan, along with Arab and international community, has finally concluded that the Syrian crisis may be nearing “the point of no return”, says Oraib Rintawi, head of Al Quds Centre for Political Studies.
“The comments are a sign that the window for dialogue is closing and Jordan will be on board,” Rintawi said.
Security concerns
In crafting its response to the ongoing crisis, stability in Syria will be the first and foremost concern on the minds of decision makers in Amman, according to Samih Maaytah, political observer and Al Rai chief editor.
With a number of Jordanian expatriates, university students and investments present north of the border, Amman will be wary of any actions that may lead to insecurity in Syria.
“A stable Syria is in Jordan’s interest, and the country will do everything it can to make sure any path to change in Syria is a peaceful one,” Maaytah said.
Growing humanitarian concerns will also inform Amman’s diplomatic stance, with Syrians already spilling across the borders into Jordan in the hundreds - with unofficial estimates placing the number of refugees in the “thousands”.
Spiralling violence or foreign military action may result in a humanitarian crisis in northern Jordan.
“We saw this in the first Gulf War. This is not an unjustified concern,” Muasher pointed out.
As Arab foreign ministers debate an appropriate response to the crisis, observers believe Jordan will likely push for a smooth transition to a democratic government, aware that any potential power vacuum in Damascus may lead to anarchy or civil war, providing a safe haven for militants who pose a direct threat to the Kingdom.
“For Jordan this is not Libya, Tunisia or even Egypt; this is right at our doorsteps and it hits a lot closer to home,” Muasher said.
“Jordan does not want another Iraq north of its borders,” Abu Teir said.
More than fears of a “second Iraq”, analysts say Jordan’s concerns are rooted in historical experience: During times of heightened tensions with the regime of Hafez Assad, the country witnessed a spike in attacks by militants who used Syria as their staging grounds.
“During the days of the senior Assad regime, there were countless acts of sabotage and terrorism that could be traced back to Syria,” said Ensour.
“The northern border was not secure, and we do not want to return to those days.”
‘Balancing act’
For months Jordan has had to play a delicate balancing act, weighing public opinion at home, economic and security interests in Syria and pressures from its Arabian Gulf and international allies.
Observers claim Jordan’s stance towards Syria may be tied to its Gulf Cooperation Council membership bid, with Amman more likely to adopt the hardline stance of Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, which are set on breaking the Syria-Iran axis.
“It is unlikely that the monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar are truly interested in Syrian democracy. They see the crisis as their chance to finally break their arch-rival and they are trying to bring Jordan on board,” Rintawi said.
Jordan is likely also being pushed towards a tougher stance by Western powers such as the US and Britain, which unlike in Libya are more limited in their response in Syria and may rely on an Arab solution to place pressure on the Assad regime, analysts claim.
According to Ensour, Jordan finds itself in a similar position to 1991, when it faced regional and international pressures to support a harsh response to a neighbour acting in violation of international norms and laws.
Jordan then chose to remain neutral in what was to become Gulf War I.
“Jordan has never interfered in the affairs of another country, and Jordan will maintain this neutrality,” Ensour predicted.
“Jordan is not here to liberate Syria; we are going to leave that to the Syrian people.”
Next steps
As Arab and Turkish diplomats consider a series of measures ranging from severing diplomatic ties to potential regional intervention, analysts say Jordan is likely to strike a much more “cautious tone”.
“Jordan will work to ensure that Syria realises the consequences of its actions while keeping open lines of dialogue,” Maaytah said.
Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammed Al Kayed declined to comment whether the government will move to withdraw the Jordanian ambassador from Syria, adding that relations between Amman and Damascus are ongoing “for the time being”.
Due to the ongoing concern over the thousands of Jordanian nationals residing in Syria, Amman is likely to maintain open diplomatic channels as long as possible, according to Fahed Kheitan, political observer and Al Arab Al Yawm chief editor.
“Jordan will be the last Arab country to pull its ambassador from Damascus,” Kheitan predicted.
Jordan may indicate that it is open to economic sanctions, which observers say will have a significant impact on the Jordanian economy.
“Syria is Jordan’s gateway to Turkey, Lebanon and Europe. A loss of Syria would be a loss to Jordan,” Odwan said.
“But for Jordan, economic sanctions are much more agreeable than any military action.”
While Amman may be receptive to economic sanctions, observers expect Jordanian diplomats to work feverishly to dissuade its allies from any military intervention in Syria.
With the presence of Hamas, Hizbollah, and the looming shadow of the regional rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran, analysts claim Jordanian diplomats fear that any military action would lead to violence that would spill over across Jordan’s borders and beyond.
“Any military intervention will lead to a situation worse than Iraq, worse than any other situation this region has seen,” Abu Teir said.
“Decision makers in Jordan know this and they will try their best to avoid it from reaching this point.”
Despite its aversion to military action, analysts believe Jordan will eventually indirectly support any action adopted by the UN Security Council or Arab League, even the potential enforcement of a no-fly zone.
“Jordan will not be the first to shoulder the mission, but it definitely will not trail far behind,” Rintawi added.
No matter what form of international consensus on Syria may take, observers agree that Amman will rely on the same careful diplomatic manoeuvring and consensus building that has enabled the Kingdom to weather regional storms in the past.
“Jordan has come out stronger from every crisis that has hit the Arab world,” Ensour said.
“This time we will come out strong once again.
