Mitt Romney leads by five percent in unskewed data from NPR poll
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a bag of donated paper towels during a Kettering Storm Relief event on October 30, 2012 in Kettering, Ohio.
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The NPR poll released today shows a one percent lead for Mitt Romney overPresident Obama. The poll sample includes six percent more Democrats than Republicans. The NPR poll, referred to in the report as NPR/Democracy Corps/Resurgent Republic and conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, officially reports Obama at 47 to percent and Mitt Romney at 48 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a larger five percent Romney lead and a 50.47 percent to Obama's 45.48 percent for a lead of two percent, well outside of the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percent.
This NPR poll, unlike many others analyzed, over-samples Democratic voters to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey's sample includes 31 percent registered Republicans and 37 percent registered Democrats and 32 percent independents among the 800 likely voters surveyed. The poll reports a 3.1 percent margin of error.
The data from the poll shows the support for the candidates among Republicans, Democrats and independent voters. Among the Democrats in the survey, 93 percent favored Obama while five percent support Romney. The Republicans in the survey chose Romney by a 96 percent to three percent margin. Those margins display a lower degree of party loyalty in each party for its candidate than seen in most national polls. Independents broke for Romney by a 51 percent to 39 percent margin.
The sample for the NPR poll includes 37 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans and 32 percent independents. This means Democrats are over-sampled by seven percent. According to data from the latest QStarNews poll, the expected partisan make up of the electorate expected for this year's election is 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats and 30.0 independents.
Unskewing this data shows somewhat different results. With the weightings of independents, Democrats and Republicans conducted by the QStarNews poll numbers, the NPR poll data would indicate a larger Romney lead of 50.47 percent to 45.48 percent, which means Romney would likely win with a thin 53.51 percent to 46.49 percent margin with support of most undecided voters if the election closed today.
This survey is not the only such poll recently to be skewed by over-sampling Democrats to skew the results in favor of Barack Obama. Last month, the previous CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. In August on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.
So many of these skewed polls have been unskewed here in this column they are now averaged, in unskewed form, in the new UnskewedPolls.com UnSkewed Average of Polls that today shows Romney leading by 3.1 percent.
Let your voice be heard, take the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll, just a few quick questions, and the full QStarNews Poll with many interesting questions.
Featured in The Blaze, the Drudge Report and mentioned on the Rush Limbaugh Show and others, everyone is visiting UnSkewedPolls.com to check out the UnSkewedPolls.com average of unskewed polls. Check out the new Obama Humor pages atUnSkewedPolls.com.
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